재개발사업의 주택시장 분석 : 노량진을 중심으로

노량진 재개발사업이 주택시장에 미치는 영향을 분석했다.

Housing price is based on the supply and demand of housing and housing supply can be broadly divided into the supply of new housing sites and expansion of redevelopment and reconstruction of existing inner cities. If the redevelopment project is activated, it will help stabilize housing prices by expanding the housing supply and is also beneficial in securing the publicness of the urban infrastructure and improvement of the residential environment.

Since the Noryangjin redevelopment project was designated as a new town project in November 2003, the promotion of the redevelopment project was suspended for a long period due to the association members’ disputes, macroeconomic conditions, and policy changes. In addition, residents' psychological and economic problems also occurred because of the rise in housing prices and the aging of the residential environment. This study aims to analyze the factors of owner disputes regarding land and such, the price determinants of the redevelopment area, and the housing market, and it consists of the following three papers.

The first study analyzed the association members' characteristics and dispute factors in the Noryangjin redevelopment project and devised a plan to improve the association’s satisfaction and resolve conflicts. Questionnaire and logistic regression analysis methods were used for 200 members in Area 1, which has the widest area and the most significant number of members.

As a result of the analysis, it was analyzed that the probability of opposition to the redevelopment was high among those earning more than 2 million won per month, non-workers, those sharing the additional apportioned charges, users for non-residential purposes, those who had more than 30 elapsed years and purchased real estate before the redevelopment project was implemented. As for the association‘s satisfaction, the lower the association's reliability is, the higher the probability of opposing redevelopment is, and the group in favour of the redevelopment project was found to be higher than the group against the project.

The second study conducted an empirical analysis to find the determinants of the housing sales price at each stage of the staggered redevelopment project of houses in the same district for the Noryangjin Redevelopment Project District 1, using the hedonic price model. As a result of the analysis, the magnitude of the relative influence on the housing sale price was analyzed in the order of contract term, land area, road interface, and the number of years elapsed. It was found that the land area, elapsed years, and the number of contract years have a negative (-) effect on the housing sale price.

The land area has a negative (-) effect on the housing sale price because the supply of pre-construction apartments to the association members is related to the articles of association that holding more land than necessary can reduce profitability due to the distinct characteristic of the redevelopment project area and it is judged that housing suitable for the exclusive private area was preferred over the land area. The third study empirically analyzes the effect of macroeconomic variables on the housing price of the Noryangjin redevelopment project area and predicts the housing price.

It was constructed as panel data and time-series data that affect house sale prices and all variables were set by log-transformation processing for variance stabilization. As a result of the analysis, the housing sale price fluctuates by macroeconomic variables. In particular, it was analyzed that the CD interest rate significantly influenced the change in housing sales prices and as the performance of housing construction consent decreases, the housing sale price has a positive (+) influence.

According to this study’s results, after the designation of the Noryangjin redevelopment project, the implementation of the project was suspended for a long time due to the association members' conflicts, macroeconomic conditions, and policy changes. It was found that paying attention to not slow down the progress of the redevelopment project because as the project is suspended, the possibility that housing prices and the apportioned charges will increase. Therefore, it has implications that rapid administrative support, association member satisfaction, and association reliability should increase and it considers ways to encourage the association members to actively participate.

In addition, it is expected that the results of this study will be able to understand the regional characteristics of regional redevelopment projects and be used as basic practical data for field-oriented business policymakers, investors and association members, and the association officials. Keywords: Noryangjin redevelopment project, Housing market, Housing sale price, Macroeconomic variables 국 문 요 약 재개발사업의 주택시장 분석 주택가격은 주택의 수요와 공급에 기반하며, 주택공급은 크게 보면 신규 택지공급과 기존 도심의 재개발·재건축의 확대로 나눌 수 있다. 재개발사업이 활성화되면 주택공급 확대로 주택가격의 안정화를 도모하고, 도시기반시설 확충 및 주거환경 개선의 공공성 확보에도 도움이 된다. 노량진 재개발사업은 2003년 11월에 뉴타운 사업으로 지정된 이후 조합원의 갈등, 거시경제 상황, 정책적 변화 등으로 재개발사업의 추진이 장기간 지연되었다.

또한, 주택가격이 상승하고 주거환경 노후화로 지역주민의 심리적·경제적인 문제도 발생했다. 본 논문은 노량진 재개발사업 추진과정에서 발생하는 토지 등 소유자 갈등 요인과 재개발지역 가격 결정요인 및 주택시장을 분석하는 데 목적이 있으며, 다음의 세 가지 논문으로 구성하였다. 첫 번째 연구는 노량진 재개발지역 조합원의 특성과 갈등 요인이 재개발사업의 찬․반에 미치는 영향을 분석하고, 재개발사업 조합 만족도 제고 및 갈등 해소방안을 모색했다. 조합원 수와 면적이 가장 큰 1구역 조합원 200명 대상으로 설문지와 로지스틱 회귀분석 방법을 활용했다. 분석 결과, 월 소득 200만원 이상 소득자, 비근로자, 추가금액 분담자, 비주거 용도 이용자, 준공 후 경과 연수 30년 이상 및 재개발사업 추진 전 부동산매입자 등이 재개발사업의 반대 확률이 높은 것으로 분석되었다. 조합 만족도는 조합에 대한 신뢰성이 낮을수록 재개발사업을 반대할 확률이 높게 나타났으며, 재개발사업을 찬성하는 집단은 반대하는 집단보다 조합 만족도가 높은 것으로 나타났다. 두 번째 연구는 노량진 재개발사업 1구역을 대상으로 동일 구역 내 주택의 시차적 재개발사업 추진 시 단계별 주택매매가격 결정요인을 파악하기 위해 헤도닉 가격모형으로 실증분석 하였다. 분석 결과, 주택매매가격에 미치는 상대적인 영향력의 크기는 계약 연수, 대지면적, 도로접면, 경과 연수 순으로 분석되었다.

대지면적, 경과 연수, 계약 연수는 주택매매가격에 부(-)의 영향을 주는 것으로 나타났다. 대지면적이 주택매매가격에 부(-)의 영향을 미치는 것은 조합원에 대한 분양공급이 조합정관과 관련이 있어 필요 이상 토지 보유는 재개발사업구역 특성상 수익성이 체감될 수 있으며, 대지면적보다 전용면적에 적합한 주택을 선호하는 데