민간택지 분양가 상한제 재도입이 재고아파트 가격에 미치는 영향

민간택지 분양가상한제 재도입이 재고아파트 가격에 미친 영향을 분석했다.

The recent rising rate of prices for apartment housing in Seoul(2018.07~19.6) has reached 5.74% and the rate of rise in apartment price has reached 21.02%. The reality is that the inflation rate has difficulty catching up with the rate of increase in apartment prices as compared to 1.28%, its recent 5-year average inflation. Therefore, government has come to reintroduce the price ceiling system for private housing land that it directly intervenes in the market and has control over prices. Prices for rebuilt and newly built apartment houses are skyrocketing.

Apartment prices remaining unchanged for a short time are again rising through the influence of the psychological fear of the supply cliff after the announcement of the reintroduction of the price ceiling system for private housing land. Therefore, this study was intended to contribute to the logical awareness of the price ceiling system ending in theoretical discussion. For this purpose, it attempted to make a comparative analysis of the sale price for newly built apartment houses before and after the enforcement of regulation on sale prices and conduct empirical analysis of the effect of sale prices for newly built apartment houses on price for stock apartment houses.

As a result, the following findings were obtained: First, an attempt was made to analyze as the dummy the period when the price ceiling system was enforced under the condition that the other variables were controlled for. If was found to have a significant effect on prices for stock apartment houses. This means that prices for stock apartment houses rather rose over the period that the price ceiling system was enforced. Therefore, there is scepticism about government policy aimed at stabilizing prices forr stock apartment houses by means of price control through the price ceiling system.

Second, it was found that a rise in apartment houses in Seoul led to a movement of prices for stock apartment houses in the same direction and that a rise in prices for newly built apartment houses had a significant effect on prices for prices for stock apartment houses. This result makes it possible to predict that if continual housing supply at low prices is made possible by the enforcement of the price regulation system of the price ceiling system, supply of newly built apartment houses can stabilize prices for stock apartment houses.

But the realistic situation of supply is that housing supply cannot continually be achieved by the chronic lack of supply due to the standstill, delay and cancellation of the rebuilding and redevelopment projects made possible through the development of private housing land. And consumer sentiment resulting from the supply cliff is found to lead to a rise in prices for stock apartment houses. Therefore, there is a need to put the priority on the measure for settling the lack of market supply rather than price regulation of the price ceiling system aimed at reducing the burden of end consumers desiring to buy their own home and stabilizing existing housing prices.

This study conducted cross-sectional analysis by confining its spatial scope to Songpa-gu Kangnam-gu Seoul. And it has some limitation in that it failed to consider the quantitative analysis of the elaborate model for controlling for diverse variables influencing apartment prices to achieve the effect of stabilizing prices for stock apartment houses due to the period of regulation on sale prices. Government policy alone cannot have an immediate effect on the determination of apartment prices. Apartment prices are comprehensively determined by several social, administrative and economic factors such as tax policy, business fluctuations, demand and supply, financial regulation and so on.

It is difficult to see that apartment prices are determined only by government policy. Changes in government policy are in a process of progressing. And it is hoped that specific studies will be conducted about realistic consideration and improvement scheme of the price ceiling system for private housing land in the future. 최근 (2018년7월~2019년 6월) 서울아파트의 가격상승률은 5.74% 분양가 상승률은 21.02%에 달한다. 최근 5년 평균 물가상승률 1.28%와 비교해봐도 아파트가격 상승률을 따라가기 힘든 실정이다. 이에 정부가 시장에 직접 개입하여 가격을 통제하는 민간택지 분양가 상한제도를 재도입하기에 이르렀다. 재건축과 신규입주아파트 중심으로 주택가격 상승 속도가 가파르게 오르고 있으며, 민간택지 분양가 상한제 재도입 발표 후 잠시 주춤하던 아파트 가격은 공급 절벽이라는 심리적 공포에 밀려 다시 상승세를 이어 가고 있다.

이에 본 연구에서는 분양가 규제가 시행됐던 전후의 신규아파트 분양가격을 비교 분석하여, 신규아파트 분양가격이 재고아파트 가격에 미치는 영향을 실증분석하고 이론적 논의에 그쳤던 분양가상한제에 관한 논리적 인식에 기여함을 목적으로 한다. 분석결과를 요약하면 다음과 같다. 첫째 다른 변수들이 통제된 상태에서 분양가 상한제를 시행했던 기간을 더미로 분석했을 때 재고아파트 가격에 유의미한 결과를 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 이는 분양가 상한제를 통한 분양가격 통제로 재고아파트 가격을 안정시키겠다는 정부 정책에 의문이 드는 결과이기도 하다. 둘째, 서울아파트 가격이 높아지면, 재고아파트 가격도 같은 방향으로 움직이고, 신규아파트 분양가가 높아지면, 재고아파트 가격에도 유의한 영향을 주는 것으로 나타났다. 이러한 결과를 역으로 해석하면 분양가상한제라는 가격 규제정책 시행으로 낮은 가격의 지속적인 주택공급이 가능하다면, 신규공급으로 재고 주택가격을 안정시키는 의미 있는 결과를 예측할 수 있다. 하지만, 현실적 공급 여건은 민간택지 개발이 가능한 재건축 재개발 사업의 답보 연기 취소로 인한 만성적 공급 부족으로 주택공급이 지속적으로 이루어질 수 없는 상황이며, 공급 절벽으로 오는 소비심리로 재고아파트 가격상승으로 나타나고 있다.

실수요자들의 내집마련 부담을 줄이고 기존 주택가격 안정화를 목적으로 하는 분양가상한제라는 가격규제보단 시장 공급 부족을 해결하는 대책이 우선 되어야 할 것이다.