북한 「지방급 경제개발구」의 개발잠재력 분석과 활성화정책

북한 지방급 경제개발구의 개발 잠재력과 활성화 정책을 분석했다.

With the rapid change in the international situation related to the North Korean nuclear issue, expectations for unification of Korean peninsular is rising and if we look at a series of processes, such as the participation of North Korea in the Winter Olympic Games held in Pyeongchang in February 2018, and the Panmunjom Summit of the North and South Koreas held on April 27 in the same year, and the North Korea and U.S. summit between the United States and North Korea, held in Singapore on June 12, it is seen that North Korea's internal and external policies are changing a lot.

This change in North Korea calls for a total economic development route from the existing nuclear‐economic parallel route internally, and calls for the guarantee of the system through the abolition of nuclear weapons and the lifting of economic sanctions externally. In such a changing inter‐Korean relationship, active discussion and preparation for the reunification and opportunity factors are needed. This study attempted to analyze the growth potential of the 13 district economic development zones announced by North Korea, and derive North Korea's regional development policies to promote the activation of the economic development zones.

To analyze the growth potential, this study used natural and physical conditions such as elevation, and slopes of the whole area of North Korea, social conditions such as the size of population and urbanization, and geological conditions such as roads, railways, airports, harbors, and distances to power plants as indicators. In the results of analyzing the potential for the economic development zones, the growth potential of economic development zones was shown to be high in the order of Heungnam, Cheongjin, Hyeondong, Songlim, and Waudo, and the growth potential of economic development zones was shown to be low in Manpo and Wiwon.

Through this study, the following economic development zone activation policy for North Korea are presented as follows. First, in order to make a success model like the Gaeseong Industrial Complex with limited investment resources in relation to spatial aspect of regional development policy on the Korean peninsula, it is desirable to preferentially select areas with high development potential such as Heungnam, Cheongjin, Hyeondong, Songlim, Waudo, and Eorang.

As regional development policy strategies based on economic development zones, development related to transportation infrastructure has been proposed according to characteristics of location such as North Korea‐China border areas, East Coast region, and West Coast region. Second, in terms of policy measures from the point of view of Flexible production factor, as North Korea has a qualitative and cheap labor force in terms of labor market, it has the basis to successfully promote reform and opening through the economic development zones.

The development priority for the economic zone is in areas where labor force is easily secured, and areas where there is a large population that can form a market based on this. From the perspective of securing the capital for the regional development, it is necessary to prepare additional financial resources, such as covering expenses for the expansion of large‐scale social infrastructures through cooperation, such as inter‐Korean cooperation funds domestically, and internationally, through international cooperation funds such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank (WB) or the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB).

Lastly, in order to successfully promote the development of North Korea through reform and openness, it is necessary to introduce a land bank system to secure land for large‐scale public development. Regardless of the various methods of reunification, whether pre‐emptive reunification or pre‐emptive system transformation, the rise in land prices following reform and opening like Germany and China will lead to many difficulties in the future development of North Korea. Therefore, in order to prevent such problems, there should be a plan to secure public land for the expansion of infrastructure.

Since the economic and social indicators for North Korea were lacking, the potential was analyzed based on spatial information and SOC status. However, there were limitations in collecting various indices and current statistical information about inaccessible areas. In addition, by analyzing 13 economic development zones in terms of spatial information and wide area, this study has limitations to reflect the growth potential according to the purpose of designated economic development zones such as industrial development zone, agricultural development zone, tourism development zone and export processing zone.

If the inter‐Korean relations become visibly concrete in the future, and if the characteristics of the development according to the purpose of the designated economic zone are derived and the micro analysis method is applied, future studies may provide more useful data. 북한핵문제와 관련한 국제 정세의 급격한 변화로 남북관계 개선에 대한 기대감이 높아지고 있다. 2018년 2월 평창에서 개최된 동계올림픽에의 북한참가와 동년 4월 27일 개최된 남북정상의 판문점회담, 6월 12일 싱가포르에서 열린 미국과 북한 정상의 북미회담 등 일련의 과정을 살펴보면 북한의 대내외정책 기조가 많이 변화하고 있음을 알 수 있다. 이러한 북한의 변화는 대내적으로 기존의 핵·경제 병진노선에서 경제건설 총력집중노선으로, 대외적으로 핵폐기를 통한 체제보장과 경제제재조치 해제를 요구하고 있다. 이처럼 변화하는 남북관계 속에서 통일에 대한 대비와 기회요인에 대한 적극적인 논의와 준비가 필요하다. 이 연구에서는 북한에서 발표한 13개 지방급 경제개발구를 대상으로 개발잠재력 분석을 통한 경제개발구의 활성화방안을 제시하고자 하였다.

개발잠재력을 분석하기 위하여 북한 전역에 대해 표고, 경사도 등 자연·물리적 조건과 인구, 시가화 규모 등의 사회적 조건, 그리고 도로, 철도, 공항, 항만, 발전소와의 거리 등과 같은 입지적 조건을 지표로 사용하였다. 경제개발구에 대한 잠재력을 분석한 결과 흥남, 청진, 현동, 송림, 와우도 경제개발구 순으로 개발잠재력이 우수하게 나타났고, 만포, 위원 경제개발구 등은 개발잠재력이 낮은 것으로 나타났다. 이 연구를 통해 다음과 같은 북한의 지방급 경제개발구 활성화 정책방안을 제시하고자 한다. 첫째, 한반도 공간측면의 활성화 정책과 관련하여 한정된 투자재원으로 개성공단과 같은 성공모델을 만들기 위해서는 개발잠재력이 우수하게 나타난 흥남, 청진, 현동, 송림, 와우도, 어랑 등과 같이 개발가능성이 높은 지역을 우선적으로 선정하여 추진하는 것이 바람직하다. 경제개발구 입지에 따른 활성화 방안으로는 북중접경지역, 동해안지역, 서해안 지역 등의 입지 특성에 따라 교통인프라와 연계한 개발을 제시한다. 둘째, 유동적 생산요소 관점에서의 정책방안으로 노동시장 측면에서는 북한은 양질의 풍부하고 저렴한 노동력을 보유하고 있기