가로주택정비사업 추진 기간 및 인근 주택 시장에 미치는 영향 분석 : 수도권을 중심으로

가로주택정비사업의 추진기간과 인근 주택시장 영향을 분석했다.

The residential environment in the metropolitan area is getting worse due to the aging of single-family, multi-family, connected, and multi-family houses, so small-scale housing maintenance projects are attracting attention as an alternative.

The housing improvement project in a city block, introduced after the enactment of the Special Act on the Maintenance of Vacant Homes and Small Housing, is drawing attention in terms of supplementing the limitations of large-scale maintenance projects, simplifying procedures, and high resettlement rates of indigenous people, but there are still many difficulties in revitalizing it, such as lack of business feasibility, conflict between unions and stakeholders, lack of expertise of promoters, and delay in administrative procedures.

This study empirically identified the factors that delay the implementation period of the housing improvement project in a city block, and at the same time analyzed the practical impact of the housing improvement project in a city block on the price of the nearby row and multi-family housing market. For the empirical analysis of the factors of delay in the promotion period of the housing improvement project in a city block, first, the interval regression model and the Cox Proportional Hazards model were applied to the housing improvement project in a city block being promoted in the metropolitan area.

As a result, it was found that the larger the business area, the higher the ratio of members, the case where the combination was changed in the promotion, and the higher the business feasibility index, the delay the promotion period. On the other hand, when the project is promoted in Seoul, the promotion period was found to be shortened. In particular, the change of the union during the promotion of the housing improvement project in a city block was a major factor that further delayed the implementation period. In the Cox model, the likelihood of project implementation plan approval decreased by about 81%, indicating that the project implementation period is highly likely to be delayed.

Business feasibility indicators were also found to be factors that delayed the implementation period due to rising expectations of members and causing conflicts in profit distribution. Through this, it was empirically confirmed that the stability of the union and the clarity of the initial decision-making structure are the key drivers of the smooth implementation of the maintenance project. Second, the practical effects of the housing improvement project in a city block were empirically verified through difference-in-difference analysis, and how the effects appear differently by period, market, and region was analyzed.

To this end, cases of the housing improvement projects in a city block completed in four regions with different structural characteristics such as market conditions, location conditions, retirement age, and housing type preference were selected. As a result of the analysis, in the case of the trading market, the effect of the maintenance project was clearly reflected in the areas where the demand for maintenance was high and the location conditions were poor. In Gogang-dong, Ojeong-gu, where physical deterioration is very high and location conditions are very poor, the sale price has increased since the maintenance project.

On the other hand, Seongnae-dong, Gangdong-gu, where the location conditions are excellent and the existing market evaluation is good, and Bongcheon-dong, Gwanak-gu, and Wonjong-dong, Ojeong-gu, had a limited impact on the sale price due to external factors. In the case of the jeonse market, unlike Seongnae-dong, where demand flowed in due to the mprovement of the residential environment after the maintenance project and the jeonse price rose, Bongcheon-dong and Wonjong-dong showed a pattern of decreasing the jeonse price due to the diversification of demand from the supply of new houses.

In particular, despite the relatively poor regional conditions compared to Bongcheon-dong, the decline in jeonse prices was small in Wonjong-dong, which can be seen as the effect of improving the residential environment due to the maintenance project buffered the deviation from demand and defended a certain part of the decline in jeonse prices. As such, the effects of the housing improvement project in a city block were different depending on the market type (sale market, jeonse market) and regional characteristics.

The housing improvement project in a city block itself is small and does not have enough influence to drive the entire market due to the structural characteristics of a small residential support type maintenance project, but it has the effect of improving the actual residential environment at the regional level. In particular, the case of a small residential-supported maintenance project targeting row and multi-family houses contributed to the increase in sales prices is significant as an empirical case that shows the possibility of creating economic added value for small housing maintenance projects, unlike previous studies.

The empirical analysis results of this study that the housing improvement project in a city block has a substantially positive effect on the neighboring row and multi-family housing markets reinforce the policy justification to resolve the delay factors. Therefore, in order to increase the effectiveness of the housing improvement project in a city block, it is necessary to establish a policy response that considers the market reaction in an integrated manner as well as to resolve the factors that delay the implementation period of the project. Furthermore, securing the stability of the union is also key in terms of the project promoter.

A change in the union is a major factor that significantly delays the mplementation period. From an early stage, a clear decision-making structure and a trust-based consultative body should be prepared. In addition, since the higher the business performance,