규제지역 지정이 주택 시장에 미치는 영향 분석 : 2016년 이후 6개 광역시를 중심으로

규제지역 지정이 주택시장에 미치는 영향을 분석했다.

ABSTRACT A study on the impact of designation of regulated areas on the housing market Korea's high economic growth is characterized by an increase in real estate prices due to high income. In particular, the creation of large-scale housing complexes centered on the metropolitan area and the expansion of the wide transportation network caused a surge in real estate prices in the developed area. To control this phenomenon, the government has managed the volatility of housing prices by alternately implementing anti-speculation policies and real estate policies to revitalize the economy.

These policies, which began in the 1980s, have been regulated and lifted periodically, especially for the purpose of stabilizing housing prices directly related to the residential life of the common people. Since 2016, along with the transition of the real estate market, the government has introduced and adjusted regulatory regional policies, taxes, and financial policies in a complex and diverse manner. This study analyzes the policy effects of the designation of 'adjusted areas' and 'adjusted areas or overheated speculation zones' targeting specific 'districts' in six metropolitan cities. The main analysis criteria were set at two points: November 2016 and June 2020.

By applying the double difference method, the short-term policy effects of 6 months and 12 months before and after the designation of the regulated area were analyzed in depth. The analysis model was based on the difference-in-differences method, and the rate of change in apartment sales price of KB Kookmin Bank and apartment sales volume of the Korea Real Estate Agency were seasonally adjusted and utilized as dependent variables.

The independent variables included the policy implementation area, implementation period, and interaction effect, and the number of unsold houses by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, and Transport and the proportion of foreign transactions by the Korea Real Estate Agency were used as control variables. In November 2016, the first period, the treatment group, including five districts in Busan, and 35 control groups, which are unregulated areas, were analyzed for 6 months and 12 months before and after designation.

In the second period, June 2020, 13 districts of treatment groups in Incheon and Daejeon and 24 districts of control groups were analyzed for six months before and after designation. In order to apply the difference-in-differences method, assumptions about homogeneous regions are essential. In the case of the metropolitan area, it was difficult to select similar areas due to heterogeneity between regions, so the scope of analysis was limited to the city, county, and district areas of metropolitan cities, and a differential approach was possible in the designation of regulated areas in 2016 and 2020. The analysis results were as follows.

First, the designation of regulated areas in November 2016 slowed the increase in apartment sales price fluctuations over 12 months from6 months, and apartment sales transactions reduced transactions in both periods. Second, the designation of an adjustment target area or an overheated speculation area in June 2020 had a clear effect of lowering apartment sales prices by 0.37%p per month and reducing apartment sales transactions by 58.4% per month.

Third, the added number of unsold houses and the characteristic variable of the foreign transaction ratio showed consistent theoretical results, and the change in the double difference estimate was insignificant, indirectly proving the robustness of the model. These results confirmed that the policy effect of designating areas subject to adjustment or designating overheated speculation zones in metropolitan areas has the effect of slowing apartment price increases and reducing transaction volume after implementation compared to before and after policy implementation.

In particular, this study closely analyzes the effectiveness of the regulatory region designation policy represented by the 'pinset regulation'. This study, conducted in the 'old' area of metropolitan cities using the double difference method, presents an important finding that this policy is the first case to prove effective in the short term. This will be an important milestone in evaluating the effectiveness of regulatory policies. The results of this study contribute to understanding trends in the Korean real estate market through microscopic and specific policy analysis.

In particular, the study, which analyzed the policy effects of regulated areas by controlling regional heterogeneity through more rigorous assumptions, provides the basic data necessary for policymakers to establish more rational and efficient housing policies. This will be a valuable reference for future research and policy-making processes related to keywords such as housing policy, regulated areas, areas subject to adjustment, and overheated speculation areas. Keywords: housing policy, regulated area, area subject to adjustment, overheated speculation area, difference-in-differences method 국 문 요 약 규제지역 지정이 주택 시장에 미치는 영향 분석 우리나라의 고도 경제성장은 고소득에 따른 부동산 가격상승이라는 특징을 가지고 있다.

특히, 수도권 중심의 대단위 주택단지 조성과 광범위한 교통망 확장은 개발 지역의 부동산 가격 급등을 초래하였다. 이러한 현상을 통제하고자 정부는 투기 억제 정책과 경기 활성화를 위한 부동산 정책을 번갈아 시행하며, 주택가격의 변동성을 관리해왔다. 1980년대부터 시작된 이러한 정책들은 특히 서민의 주거 생활과 직결된 주택가격 안정을 목적으로 하여, 규제와 해제를 반복적으로 시행해왔다. 2016년 이후 부동산시장의 활황세 전환과 함께 정부는 규제지역 정책과 조세, 금융정책들을 복잡하고 다양하게 도입하고 조정해왔다. 본 연구는 6개 광역시의 특정 ‘구’들을 대상으로, ‘조정대상지역’ 및 ‘조정대상지역 또는 투기과열지구’ 지정에 따른 정책효과를 분석한다. 주요 분석 기준은 2016년 11월과 2020년 6월의 두 시점으로 설정하였다. 이중차분법을 적용하여 규제지역 지정 전후 6개월 및 12개월의 단기정책 효과를 심층적으로 분석했다. 분석 모형은 이중차분법을 기반으로 하여, 종속변수로는 KB국민은행의 아파트매매가격 변화율과 한국부동산원의 아파트매매거래량을 계절조정하여 활용했다. 독립변수는 정책 시행지역, 시행 기간, 그리고 교호 효과를 포함하였고, 통제변수로는 국토교통부의 미분양주택 수와 한국부동산원의 외지인거래 비중을 사용하였다.

첫 번째 시기인 2016년 11월은 부산의 5개 구를 포함한 처치군과 비규제지역인 대조군 35개 구를 대상으로 지정 전후 6개월 및 12개월을 분석하였다. 두 번째 시기인 2020년 6월은 인천과 대전의 처치군 13개 구와 대조군 24개 구를 대상으로 지정 전후 6개월을 분석하였다. 이중차분법을 적용하기 위해서는 동질적인 지역에 대한 가정이 필수적이다