도시정비사업을 위한 조합의 역할에 관한 연구 : 기대불일치 이론으로 분석한 조합원 만족도 영향요인을 중심으로

도시정비사업에서 조합의 역할과 조합원 만족도 요인을 연구했다.

Housing, a fundamental human need, is a complex domain that encompasses both essential survival requirements and significant economic value as an asset. It represents not only the largest portion of personal property but also serves as a key tool for wealth accumulation. Urban regeneration projects, which systematically improve deteriorated residential environments or restore urban functions, are critical public policies aimed at enhancing the quality of life and urban settings. Due to the nature of urban regeneration projects, the project-union members often lack opportunities to participate in all decision-making processes or access complete information during project implementation.

This limited involvement can foster doubts about the project-union’s management. Moreover, such projects frequently face challenges, including individuals seeking personal gain from the substantial profits involved or small groups spreading misinformation to disrupt operations. This study examines the factors influencing the project-union members' satisfaction with urban regeneration projects, focusing on the mediating effects of disconfirmation theory. It investigates how the discrepancy between members' expectations and their actual experiences affects satisfaction and provides an in-depth analysis of the project-union’s role in enhancing satisfaction.

The study covers urban regeneration projects in Seoul, Gyeonggi, and Chungnam regions, from the early 2000s (when projects began) to the present. Surveys were conducted at four sites: a street housing redevelopment project and a reconstruction project in Seoul, a small-scale reconstruction project in Suwon, and a redevelopment project in Chungnam. The study includes only completed or nearly completed sites, as satisfaction was assessed based on final evaluations.

Six independent variables influencing satisfaction were identified: three related to project management expectations (speed, communication, and reliability) and three related to project performance expectations (residential environment improvement, profitability, and social reputation). Positive disconfirmation, representing the discrepancy between expectations and actual performance, was included as a mediating variable. The relationships among these variables and satisfaction were analyzed using a conceptual model. Analysis of demographic characteristics found differences based on residency duration, educational level, and housing unit size.

Members with shorter residency durations were more likely to acquire membership for investment purposes, expecting economic outcomes but holding relatively modest expectations. Conversely, longer-term residents had higher expectations for reliability. Educational level also influenced expectations: members with lower education levels exhibited more optimistic expectations for project speed and profitability, while those with higher education levels showed lower expectations in these areas. Larger housing unit sizes were associated with higher expectations for rent increases and transaction volume, while smaller unit residents displayed lower expectations.

Variables such as age, education, marital status, housing type, residency duration, and unit size were controlled in the analysis. Multiple regression analysis and the Process Macro were conducted to examine the effects of members' expectations for project management and performance on satisfaction, along with the mediating role of disconfirmation. The results showed that expectations for project speed and reliability significantly and positively influenced satisfaction. Urban regeneration projects often require substantial time, and members who anticipated faster progress reported higher satisfaction.

This underscores the need for policy efforts to streamline processes and shorten timelines, directly enhancing satisfaction. Trust in the project-union’s transparent and fair management also increased cooperation among members and positively impacted satisfaction. Among project performance factors, expectations for residential environment improvement positively influenced satisfaction, while profitability expectations had a negative impact. Members’ shared anticipation of improved residential conditions contributed to higher satisfaction with completed projects. However, unmet profitability expectations, influenced by market or local circumstances, reduced satisfaction.

Expectations for communication and reliability positively influenced positive disconfirmation, while expectations for speed had a negative effect. Members with higher expectations for communication and reliability perceived greater positive disconfirmation, indicating that trust in the association and effective communication led to more favorable evaluations of project outcomes. When positive disconfirmation was included as a mediating variable, the results remained consistent. Positive disconfirmation had a statistically significant positive effect on satisfaction.

Among the factors analyzed, reliability expectations had the greatest influence on satisfaction, followed by residential environment improvement, profitability, project speed, and positive disconfirmation, with profitability being the only factor exerting a negative effect. Tests for the mediating effects of positive disconfirmation found that it mediated the relationship between communication and reliability expectations and satisfaction but not project performance factors. While communication expectations did not directly affect satisfaction, positive disconfirmation amplified satisfaction. Members who perceived better-than-expected communication were more satisfied.

Similarly, higher reliability expectations directly increased satisfaction and enhanced it further through positive disconfirmation when members experienced greater-than-expected trust in the association. Policy implications derived from these findings include the following: (1) The central government responsible for