서울시 공동주택 가격 영향요인에 관한 연구 : 정권별 부동산 규제정책 비교분석

서울 공동주택 가격에 미치는 요인과 정권별 부동산 규제정책을 분석했다.

As previous studies in Korea were limited to specific governments, specific policies, and specific regions, the empirical analysis of the effects of comprehensive policies showed limitations. This study analyzed how regional, policy, and comparative variables influence the prices of apartment houses in 25 districts in Seoul through empirical analysis and case analysis of real estate regulatory policies by Korea Administration, using quantitative and qualitative methodology.

First, by analyzing what is more effective real estate policy for housing stabilization, it will be possible to contribute to the stabilization of people's housing by implementing preemptive real estate policies for each region in the future. Second, through time series and cross-sectional analysis, a comprehensive real estate policy can be viewed in time, space, and context, and this future-oriented problem-solving consciousness is consistent with the ultimate purpose of modern policy studies.

Third, the panel regression analysis was conducted to determine which real estate policies were effective for the stabilization of people's housing and what factors influenced the apartment prices in Seoul through a case study of real estate regulatory policies by Korea Administration. For empirical analysis in this study, a total of 19 independent variables, such as regional, policy, and comparative variables, were selected as the dependent variable and the average sale price of apartment houses in 25 districts in Seoul was selected as a dependent variable.

The panel regression analysis result was a random-effects model, showing 72% of explanatory power (R-Squared) at a statistical significance level of 99%. First, if the average Jeonse price of apartment houses in 25 districts in Seoul increases by 6,900 won, the number of private academies in 25 districts in Seoul increases by 29, or the average sale price of apartment houses in Gangnam 3 districts(Gangnam, Seocho, Songpa) increases by 1,800 won, the average sale price of apartment houses in 25 districts in Seoul increases. It gave a positive effect of increasing 10,000 won.

Second, it was found that a 3.31% decrease in the simultaneous enforcement of the loan regulation(LTV·DTI) has a negative effect, increasing the average sale price of apartment houses in 25 districts in Seoul by 10,000 won. This means that the loan regulation policy, which lowers the loan limit by lowering the LTV and DTI, is a factor that increases the prices of apartment houses in Seoul. As a result, among the 12 policy variables, the simultaneous enforcement of the loan regulation(LTV·DTI) has no effect on the apartment price in Seoul at a statistically significant level.

Third, the regional variables of the average Jeonse price and the number of private academies acted as the biggest factor (+) for the price of apartment houses in 25 districts in Seoul. The number of facilities included in the number of private academies was the number of entrance examination academies and supplementary learning facilities. In addition, it was confirmed that a spillover effect occurred in which the prices of apartment houses in Gangnam 3 districts had a direct influence (+) on the prices of apartment houses in 25 districts in Seoul.

It was found that if the average sale price of apartment houses in Gangnam 3 districts increased by 1,800 won, the average sale price of apartment houses in 25 districts in Seoul increased by 10,000 won. Looking at the recent trend of the number of private academies in Seoul, as of 2019, Gangnam 1,153, Yangcheon, 721, Songpa 651, Seocho 539, and so on. These districts are in Seoul where the number of private academies is increasing the fastest in the last 10 years. In this study, the results of case analysis of real estate policies regulatory policies by Korea Administration are summarized in two ways.

First, the real estate policy shows a pattern of repetitive deregulation for economic stimulus and regulatory policies for housing price and housing stabilization. The real estate deregulation policies of the Kim Dae-Jung, Lee Myung-Bak, and Park Geun-Hye Administrations minimized government intervention in the market economy to stimulate the domestic economy. As a result, demand for housing and speculation increased due to deregulation to revitalize the economy, resulting in a failure of the market economy in which household debt increased rapidly.

On the other hand, the Kim Young-Sam, Roh Moo-Hyun, and Moon Jae-In Administrations implemented a policy of strengthening regulations that actively intervene in the market economy. The government's policy failure also caused a balloon effect in which the price of apartment houses in a specific area surged and spread by reducing the housing supply due to complex and diverse real estate regulations. Second, in terms of the correlation between real estate policy and housing price, the government's real estate regulation is not very helpful in stabilizing housing prices.

As previously discussed, real estate policies by previous Korea Administrations repeatedly implemented as parts of strengthening regulations to stabilize housing prices and deregulation to revitalize the domestic economy. In particular, the Administration's real estate regulatory policy tried to stabilize to curb demand through the loan regulations(LTV and DTI), to block speculative demand by increasing the taxation through the heavy burden of comprehensive real estate tax and capital gains tax, and to expand the housing market by expanding public rental housing.

However, the government's market intervention through the real estate regulatory policies could not compensate for the distributive inequality and the efficiency of the autonomous market in social equity. On the other hand, the Administration's real estate deregulation policy enabled economic recovery, job creation, and economic growth rate to be improved by revitalizing the domestic economy. With this real estate deregulat