구조방정식을 이용한 도시·교통계획요소와 대중교통이용수요 간의 인과관계 분석 : 서울시 행정동을 대상으로

도시·교통계획 요소와 대중교통 이용수요의 인과관계를 분석했다.

Currently, they are underway large-scale urban development such as reconstruction, redevelopment, and 3rd phase new towns and large-scale public transportation projects such as GTX and S-BRT in Seoul and the metropolitan area, The purpose of this study are to identify the causal relationship between urban and transportation planning elements and public transportation demand and find methods that urban and transportation planners can apply during urban and transportation planning in the future. This study was conducted according to the procedure below to analyze the causal relationship between urban and transportation planning factors and public transportation demand.

First, relevant studies were reviewed, and land use and building data, public transportation facility supply data, public transportation operation data, road facility supply data, parking lot status data, and public transportation demand data were collected for Seoul City, and data were constructed by aggregating by the 424 administrative dong unit. Second, a correlation analysis was conducted between urban and transportation planning elements and public transportation demand collected using SPSS 19.0 and Amos 26.0, and related variables were selected.

Through exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis, a latent variable in the structural equation of this study was derived and a measurement model was established. Third, 424 administrative dongs in Seoul were categorized according to land use characteristics, and a structural equation model was constructed and analyzed between latent variables derived for each administrative dong type and public transportation demand.

Administrative dong type was classified into commercial business center and residential center by performing cluster analysis based on the density of commercial business facilities, and the three public transportation demand, bus, subway, bus + subway, provided by KT_DB in the metropolitan area were endogenous. A structural equation model was constructed by applying the latent variable as an observed variable. Finally, the fitness analysis of the structural equation model for each type was performed, and all five fit indices, CMIN/DF, P, TLI, CFI, RMSEA, were analyzed within the acceptable range and evaluated as reliable. The results of structural equation model analysis are shown as below.

First, in the case of commercial business-centered areas, as public transportation demand has the highest causal relationship with land use factors, it is shown that intensive land use centered on station influence areas and TOD development will be able to promote public transportation demand. At the same time, if the use of personal transportation is suppressed through parking demand management policies such as parking caps and parking rates, it will be possible to promote the use of public transportation more effectively.

In addition, supply and connectivity of public transportation modes and operation are secured through the installation of complex transfer centers and transfer facilities, and planning and expansion of subway-linked bus routes are provided in areas outside the station influence area, separate areas with a radius of 500m or more from the station influence area, where direct pedestrian access to the subway is difficult. In addition, the installation and improvement of sidewalks, bicycles, and PM-related facilities that can supplement buses must be continuously carried out.

Second, it is figured out that short-distance travel in residential areas will be handled by buses, and mid-to-long-distance travel will consist of subway and bus+subway travel. While transportation plans are needed in terms of land use and traffic demand management in commercial centers, transportation plans must be established in terms of public transportation service supply in residential areas. Sufficient bus stops should be installed in residential areas to improve public transportation accessibility for bus or bus+subway users.

In terms of bus supply, it is figured out that it will be possible to promote bus use by improving public transportation accessibility and convenience through the installation of bus shelters, BIS, and crosswalks. In the case of demand for subway use, as the presence or absence of subway stations shows a high causal relationship with demand for use, public transportation demand can be increased in existing residential areas through the operation of subway-linked buses and increased number of trains.

In new cities and redevelopment projects, subway, It is noted that the demand for public transportation can be improved when a linkage system is established with intercity transportation systems such as light rail GTX, S-BRT, and median bus lanes. In conclusion, as a result of comparing commercial area and residential area, the influence of land use and parking facilities on public transportation demand in commercial area is generally greater than in residential area.

On the other hand, the causal relationship between public transportation facilities, public transportation operation factors, and public transportation demand in residential area was found to be higher than in commercial center area. In other words, urban and transportation plans which are centered on Transport Demand Management, such as Transit Oriented Development (TOD), parking cap and parking fare, are needed because the transportation demand factor has a higher impact than the transportation supply factor in commercial area. On the contrary, public transportation facilities and operation supply factors have a great influence on public transportation demand in residential area.

It means that it is necessary to promote the use of public transportation by establishing a plan for supplying and operating transportation facilities. 현재 서울시 및 수도권에서는 재건축, 재개발, 3기 신도시 등 대규모 도시개발과 GTX, S-BRT 등 대형 대중교통사업이 진행되고 있는 배경하에, 본 연구에서는 도시・교통계획요소와 대중교통이용수요 간의 인과관계를 규명하여 향후 도시 및 교통계획가가 도시‧교통계획 시 대중교통분야에 적용할 수 있는 방안을