건축허가면적과 주택보급률의 구조적 변동 분석 : 부천시외 4개도시를 중심으로

건축허가면적과 주택보급률의 구조적 변동을 분석했다.

The purpose of this study was to analyze the correlation between permitted building areas and housing distribution ratios and their fluctuation, and test a distribution model during 3 successive governments (Civilian, People's and Participatory Governments) in 5 cities including Bucheon in reference to the time series administrative data, and thereby, interpret the results of the analysis in association with the policies pursued by the successive governments to examine the structural fluctuation of permitted building areas and housing distribution ratios.For this purpose, the relevant literature was reviewed focusing on concept of the real estate policies, definition of houses, concept of the housing distribution ratio, housing policies, recent research trend and government's real estate policies centered about housing policies.

In particular, types of government's real estate policies and major real estate policies were examined in relation with such yearly issues as real estate real name system, debt to income ratio, sales price ceiling system, extended period for limited resale, composite real estate tax, and so on.In order to analyze the fluctuation of permitted building areas and housing distribution ratios during 3 successive governments and examine the cycles of the time series data, the spectral analysis was performed, and in order to analyze the correlation between permitted building areas and housing distribution ratios, the tabulation was performed to describe the correlations statistically, and in order to explain about differences of fluctuation distribution of permitted building areas and housing distribution ratios among 3 governments, the goodness of fit test was conducted.In addition, in order to analyze the correlation between permitted building areas and housing distribution ratios, the relevant data were encoded using the spread sheet program, while spectral and correlation coefficient analyses were performed using the SPSS statistical program.

Furthermore, the statistical distribution of data were calculated with the simulation analysis program ARENA operated for statistical goodness of fit test, correlation, tabulation and spectral analyses of each distribution. The results of this study can be summarized as follows;First, as a result of correlation coefficient analysis, it was found that in terms of correlation between permitted building areas and housing distribution ratios, the permitted building areas had increased from Civilian Government to People's Government and from People's Government to Participatory Government, while the housing distribution ratios had decreased.

Namely, the correlation between two variables had been 'negative.' However, both permitted building areas and housing distribution ratios had increased from Civilian Government to Participatory Government or People's Government. Namely, the correlation between two variable were 'positive' during this period.Second, as a result of tabulation analysis, it was found that permitted building areas and housing distribution ratios increased first and then, decreased during Civilian Government, and the tabulation coefficient was largest at the time-lagged value of zero, which suggests that both permitted building areas and housing distribution ratios increased simultaneously.

And during People's Government, permitted building areas and housing distribution ratios decreased, increased and then, decreased again. Also, the tabulation coefficient was largest at the time-lagged value of zero, which suggests that both variables fluctuated simultaneously.

And during Participatory Government, permitted building areas and housing distribution ratios decreased first and then, increased, and the tabulation coefficient was largest at the time-lagged value of +2, which means that the permitted building areas preceded the housing distribution ratios by 2 cycles.Third, as a result of the spectral analysis, it was found that during Civilian Government, the permitted building areas increased and decreased, repeatedly, while the housing distribution ratios increased, decreased and then, increased again. And during People's Government, both permitted building areas and housing distribution ratios increased.

During Participatory Government, both permitted building areas and housing distribution ratios decreased.Fourth, as a result of testing differences of the fluctuation distribution of permitted building areas and housing distribution ratios, it was found that the fluctuation distribution of both variables was uniform between Civilian and People's Governments, which means that both variable were stable.

During Participatory Government when diverse real estate policies were designed and implemented, the fluctuation distribution of permitted building areas and housing distribution ratios showed a triangular distribution with minimum value, median and maximum value, which means that the fluctuation intervals were not uniform or stable.Based on the above result of analyses, it was perceived that during Civilian Government, permitted building areas and housing distribution ratios had been affected much by such policies as deregulation of land uses, deregulation of constructions in the capital area, stabilization of the housing markets, abolition of the housing construction quota system, housing sales price interlocked with construction cost, deregulation of the private rental houses, IMF bailout programs, and the like.

During People's Government, permitted building areas and housing distribution ratios were influenced much by voluntary pricing of private apartment houses and some public apartment houses, loans for second installment payment for new houses, exemption of the capital gain tax for those households owning two or more houses, abolition of prohibited resale of the right to buy the apartment house, deregulation of the multi-household building standards, expansion of the financial support to ordinary people's houses,