연구 요약
연구 요지 (AI)
오시리아 관광단지 개발이 주변 주택가격에 미치는 영향을 분석했다.
초록
In order to address energy, environment and security, and economy related issues more actively, many countries are now competitively engaging in new renewable energy development businesses. Among several renewable energy resources, their attention is drawn toward offshore wind farm development, since it is considered to be the most technologically ready and economical energy.
In line with this, the government recognizes offshore wind farm power as a new growth engine for Korea, and has recently announced its ambition to become one of the top three offshore wind power generating countries on 11 November, 2011 through its comprehensive plan to promote a 2.5GW offshore wind farm off the southwest coast of Korea, to procure technologies needed for offshore wind farms and also to become a major exporter of wind power. Furthermore, in 2001, Korea ended the FIT (Feed in Tariff) program which had been given to supply new renewable energy and to extend its support.
Moreover, after introducing a new RPS, Korea has been implementing a new policy mechanism to supply new renewable energy sources including offshore wind farm power and to extend the government support, since 1 January, 2012. Instead of the government fund provided under the FIT, in accordance with the RPS, a Renewable Energy Certificate (REC) will be given to acknowledge that power has been generated using a new renewable energy facility. In the market where bidding is the norm, forecasting the prices of RECs is a must to sell them.
Therefore, it can be argued that the uncertainty of this business outweighs potential profits made from selling wind power, and accordingly, by focusing mostly on the profits, changes in the costs have been estimated. This study calculated the profit per unit of power obtained by selling power by adding the SMPs to the price of RECs, in order to achieve prices that are close to the actual sales prices, reduce the margin of error for the economic feasibility analysis, and estimate future cash flows.
In addition, the SMP, which is known to form the basis for economic feasibility analysis, was set to 139.04 Won/kwh, the average monthly reference value of the SMPs given by Korean Power Exchange in November 2011, while the price of RECs was set to 58.65 Won/kwh, the average annual reference price of RECs that won the bid at the REC Exchange in 2012, and then these prices were calculated in a current price based statement. Moreover, a constant price based statement was created by forecasting the average annual prices of SMPs seasonally through a regression analysis, and the average annual prices of RECs in accordance with the year of business operation.
The constant price based analysis has calculated power generation costs for a test bed, demonstration area and diffusion area and they were 346.71 Won/kWh, 356.79 Won/kWh, and 284.43 Won/kWh respectively, whereas the current price based analysis has estimated the costs as 409.17 Won /kWh, 422.24 Won /kWh, 285.88 Won /kWh respectively. The gap between the power generation cost estimated based on the constant price and the ones obtained based on the current price, it seems, has resulted from the generation costs affected by the increase in corporate income tax led by increased profits, and the decrease in availability taking into account facility deterioration.
Furthermore, when the generation cost calculated in the study is compared against 139.04 Won/kWh, the average monthly reference SMP calculated based on data collected in November 2012, and 66.43 Won/kWh(1REC), the general price of RECs set by bidding, the profit the government can obtain by generating 1kW of power is 271.90 Won/kWh. When the current price based statement was applied to the test bed, this number created a gap of 137.27 Won/kWh, to demonstration area 150.34 Won/kWh, and to diffusion area 13.98 Won/kWh.
The minor gap estimated with diffusion area can be explained by the decrease in the initial capital cost from 4 million Won/kW to 3.5 million Won/kW and the six percent increase in availability from thirty to thirty six percent. After examining the future cash flows, the value of the test bed was estimated to be 33,495 (million Won) using the constant price, and 138,745 (million Won) applying the constant price. Moreover, the NPV painted a rather gloomy picture of the business, as the value has been estimated to be -8,705 (million Won) with the constant price, but it has recovered to 442,000 (million Won) when the current price was used.
Meanwhile, the IRR estimated the values of 5.46 percent and 13.87 percent with the constant price and current price respectively, and even the payout period has significantly fallen from eleven years with the constant price to seven years with the current price. In the above analysis of the cash flows at the test bed, when the constant price was applied, even though the identical results have been obtained except for the change resulting from the factors in financial statements, which is to be paid over fifteen years with a five-year grace period for borrowed capitals, when the current price was applied, continuous increases were observed throughout the twenty years of operation.
In the NPV analysis, when the constant price was applied, a negative value of -8,705(million Won) was obtained, but with the current price, it recovered back to a positive value in the ninth year of operation and then achieved 442,000 (million Won) in the twentieth year. In addition, in the IRR analysis, 5.46 percent obtained from the constant price based value, which has been deemed to have no business value compared to 5.7 percent (WACC) of this area, did in fact rise to 13.87 percent with the current price, proving the business value.
In analyzing the generation costs and value evaluation, the business value appears to be low in the constant price based value analysis which only employed the SMPs and price of RECs that had been applied equally throughout the twenty year
발행 정보
2013. 全州大學校 국내박사 학위논문