서울시 토지거래허가제의 지가 안정화 효과- 통제집단합성법을 활용하여 -

서울시 토지거래허가제가 지정 지역 지가에 미친 안정화 효과를 분석한다.

This study employs a Synthetic Control Method to examine the impact of Seoul’s Land Transaction Permission Policy on land prices in four designated neighborhoods: Jamsil-dong, Samseong-dong, Daechi-dong, and Cheongdam-dong. The results reveal substantial heterogeneity in policy effectiveness. In Jamsil-dong, the policy produced a statistically significant and sustained reduction in land prices from 2020 to 2023, with an average annual decline of KRW 1.99 million per square meter. Conversely, Samseong-dong experienced consistent and significant price increases averaging KRW 2.75 million per year, suggesting a counterproductive effect.

No significant impact was found in Daechi-dong, whereas Cheongdam-dong showed delayed price acceleration in 2022 and 2023, indicating diminished regulatory influence over time. These findings suggest that the effectiveness of a uniform regulatory policy could diverge across regions, depending on structural market characteristics, demand dynamics, and asset-based investment preferences.