미분양 아파트 해소를 위한 CR리츠의 실효성 분석: 대구광역시 주택시장을 중심으로

대구의 미분양 아파트 해소에 CR리츠가 효과적인지 분석한다.

This study examined whether Corporate Restructuring Real Estate Investment Trusts (CR REITs) can effectively resolve unsold apartment inventories. The analysis utilized actual transaction data to calculate both expected returns and price volatility with a focus on the Dong-gu, Buk-gu, and Dalseo-gu districts of Daegu, where unsold units are heavily concentrated. The stochastic path of apartment prices was modeled using Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM), and the probability distribution of the Internal Rate of Return (IRR) was derived through Monte Carlo simulations.

Net holding returns were calculated by applying the Jeonse-to-monthly rent conversion rate as a rental yield proxy and by incorporating maintenance, depreciation, and holding taxes. Results demonstrate that the Daegu area CR REITs exhibit a negative carry structure with an annual net return of -0.83%, attributable to holding costs exceeding rental yields. Simulations further indicate that with a 10% purchase price discount, the probability of achieving a required investor return of 7% remains extremely low. However, this probability surged to above 80% when the discount surpassed 23%.

Consequently, for CR REITs to function as a viable solution, active participation by construction companies and sophisticated institutional designs reflecting market conditions are essential.