상업용 부동산 개발사업의 리스크 요인 중요도에 관한 연구

상업용 부동산 개발사업의 주요 리스크 요인을 분석했다.

Real estate shares meaning with the growth of cities and countries. Real estate in the dictionary sense defines property that cannot be moved like land or buildings, but if you look at real estate broadly, it becomes the basis for buildings and people to form a city. Cities and countries where ancient humans gathered to form communities and where civilization occurred based on developed societies were further revived through urban planning. As the center of industrial activities, the city plays a role in economic and job creation and leads the development of technology and industry.

This is because culture, economy, and society are concentrated, and the vitality and productivity of the strengthened city attract more human resources to the city. Accordingly, along with efforts for balanced urban development, institutional help at the national level is sought to foster high value-added industries that are the basis of economic development in each city. From 1970 to the 1980s, rapid economic growth and industrialization policies were implemented in Korea, and urban concentration centered on the metropolitan area began. With the increase in population, the urban spatial structure is diversified, and the centralization of the city center continues to intensify.

Since the IMF financial relief in 1997, the real estate development industry has grown due to the economic and social restructuring, and commercial real estate has expanded further and is growing in size. Commercial real estate plays a role in creating employment and jobs by connecting population and industry, and contributing to economic growth and the development of society as a whole. Since the mid-1960s, the Urban Planning Act was enacted in 1971 and urban redevelopment projects began in earnest in the early 1980s, changing the perception of commercial real estate. Commercial real estate is a representative profitable real estate.

As commercial real estate with the purpose of urban reorganization begins to develop further as a solution to the urban hollowing-out phenomenon caused by CBD (Central Business District) in the center of Seoul, the diversification of capital returns through lease, transfer, and value increase is one of the factors evaluated as high value-added investment. Commercial real estate could be recognized as an attractive investment destination for ordinary investors through fund creation due to the recovery of growth and ultra-low interest rate policies for economic stimulus since 2016, and trading volume increased as barriers to investment entry were lowered.

The number of commercial real estate transactions increased from about 257,000 in 2016 to about 384,000 in 2017, about 335,000 in 2020, about 381,000 in 2021, and about 360,000 in 2022, up about 40% from 2016. Korea Real Estate Agency (2023), "Status of detailed building transactions by year". The revitalization of the market for commercial real estate is led by increased demand in urban areas, government policies to organize aging buildings in urban areas for new business purposes, and landlords to maximize profitability.

Commercial real estate development has resulted in a significant increase in the difference in returns before and after development based on scale expansion and variety of uses. The experience and learning of the project led to urban redevelopment and the active progress of commercial real estate, further boosting commercial real estate development. In addition, the low-interest rate trend has been maintained since the IMF, and the trend of the construction market, which has shifted from existing contract projects to profit structures through development projects, is one of the important factors that led to the boom in commercial real estate.

However, commercial real estate did not have a reliable transaction standard, so it was formed as a special market centered on sellers and development entities. Under these market conditions, commercial real estate development has the advantage of a high return on investment when successful, but it has a fatal risk that can threaten even the company's right to live if it fails. Therefore, the implementation of commercial real estate development must be accompanied by a valuation of the right standards.

The background of the study is that smooth development should be made to minimize the rate of project failure by evaluating the importance of risks that may occur in development projects with high social impact due to success and failure. Failure to curb the possibility of a series of financial crises by contractors, contractors, and related companies in commercial real estate development can lead to consequences that affect cities, countries, and the economy as a whole.

In order to create high value-added and achieve business purposes in commercial real estate development, the important risks inherent in each development stage are checked in advance and the importance of risk factors to reflect them is evaluated. The importance and main contents of risk factors in the implementation of commercial real estate development projects verified through the survey of this study can be summarized as follows. First, as a result of analyzing the importance of risks by stage in real estate development projects, it was found that the importance of the development project preparation stage was the highest.

This is because the development project preparation stage is interpreted as a key step in making decisions to determine whether the project is carried out in various ways through land purchases of commercial real estate, evaluation of surrounding locations, and exit strategies in the development process. Second, the relative risk importance of each middle classification factor in the development project feasibility stage was found to be the highest in the project planning stage. This is because the establishment of specific plans for the project, such as financing methods reviewed in the business plan stage and