양도소득세와 경제변수가 아파트가격 변동에 미치는 영향에 관한 실증 분석

양도소득세와 경제변수가 아파트 가격 변동에 미치는 영향을 실증 분석했다.

The purpose of this paper is to systematically analyze the impact of capital gain tax and macroeconomic variables on housing price fluctuations. To examine data stability and short and long-run equilibrium relations, unit root tests, Granger casualty tests, cointegration test, and Vector Error Correction Model(VECM) are performed, and impulse response function analysis is also performed. To summarize of this study, there exists only one cointegrated and long-run equilibrium relation between capital gain tax and economic variables. Also, capital gain tax and its regulation dummy variable have negative impact on apartment prices in the nation-wide country, Seoul, and Busan in the long term.

Finally, in terms of VECM estimation results, they have also negative impact on nation-wide apartment prices in the short term.