택지개발지구 계획인구와 실제인구의 차이에 관한 연구

택지개발지구의 계획인구와 실제인구 차이를 발생시키는 요인을 분석했다.

택지개발지구의 계획인구는 기반시설의 용량과 토지이용계획을 결정하는데 가장 기초적인 지표가 되지만 택지개발지구는 규모가 크고 개발기간도 장기간 소요되어 인구 예측이 어렵고 특히 최근 우리나라는 인구구조가 급격히 변화하고 있어 정확한 계획인구의 산정이 어려운 실정이다. 이에 본 연구는 택지개발지구의 계획인구와 실제인구간에 차이를 발생시키는 요인들을 찾아내고 그 요인들이 인구차이에 얼마나 영향을 주는지를 밝히고자 다중회귀분석을 실시하였고 그 결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째 준공 후 경과년수가 인구차이에 가장 큰 영향을 주었고 경과연수가 길수록 실제인구는 작게 나타났는데 이는 평균가구원수의 감소가 원인으로 판단된다. 둘째, 계획인구를 산정할 때 도시기본계획상 평균가구원수를 그대로 적용하여 계획인구가 과다하게 산정되었다. 셋째, 1인가구가 많을수록 실제인구는 크게 나타났으며 이는 1인가구가 계획적인 주택에 거주하지 않기 때문으로 판단된다. 넷째, 계획한 주택수보다 실제 주택수가 작을수록 실제인구는 작게 나타났다. 다섯째, 단독주택은 계획인구가 적게 산정되었고 임대주택은 계획인구가 과다하게 산정되었다. 여섯째, 지방중소도시는 계획인구보다 실제인구가 작게 나타났다. 일곱째, 65세이상 노령인구가 많으면 실제인구는 작게 나타났다.

분석결과 택지개발지구에서 계획인구와 실제인구와의 차이를 발생시키는 가장 큰 원인은 평균가구원수 감소이며 이 현상은 우리나라 전반적인 추세로 현재의 계획인구 산정방법이 잘못되었다고 할 수 없으나, 계획인구를 산정할 때 도시기본계획에서 추정한 평균가구원수를 적용한 점과 1인가구의 비주택 거주를 고려하지 않은 점, 임대주택과 단독주택의 특성을 고려하지 않은 점은 개선이 필요한 것으로 판단된다. A plan population of a residential development district is the most fundamental index to determine the capacity of infrastructure and land use plan. However, because a residential development district has a large size and it takes long to develop the district, it is difficult to forecast a population and especially to calculate an accurate plan population in the rapid change of Korean population structure.

Therefore, the purpose of this study is to find the factors causing the difference between a plan population and an actual population in a residential development district, and to reveal how the factors affect the population difference. To achieve the purpose, this study conducted multiple regression analysis. The study result is presented as follows: First, it was found that the elapsed years after construction most influenced the population difference. The longer the elapsed years became, the most the population difference was influenced. The longer the elapsed years became, the smaller the actual population was.

It is judged that it is attributable to a reduction in the average number of household members. Secondly, when a plan population was calculated, the average number of household members in urban master plan was applied as it was. As a result, the plan population was overly calculated. Thirdly, the higher the number of one-person households was, the larger the actual population was. It is judged that there is no one-person household in planned houses. Fourthly, the smaller the number of planned houses was than the number of actual houses, the smaller the actual population became.

Fifthly, in the case of detached houses, a plan population was calculated small, whereas in the case of rental houses, a plan population was overly calculated. Sixthly, in the case of local small and medium-sized cities, a plan population was smaller than an actual population. Seventhly, when there were many elderly people aged over 65, an actual population became small. According to the analysis, the biggest cause of the difference between a plan population and an actual population was a reduction in the average number of household members. Such a phenomenon is the overall trend across the nation. It is hard to say that the current method of calculating a plan population is wrong.

Nevertheless, to calculate a plan population, it is necessary to improve the points that the average number of household numbers estimated in urban master plan was applied; that any one-person household living in structures other than dwellings was not taken into account; and that the characteristics of rental houses and detached houses were not taken into consideration.