(The) effects of complimentary allocation of agricultural land in North Korea on reducing income disparity and optimal timing of allowing the land trade after reunification

통일 후 북한 농지의 무상분배가 소득격차와 토지거래 허용 시점에 미치는 영향을 분석했다.

In this study, I analyzed the per capita income convergence path and the optimal timing of permitting land trade according to the trajectories of economic growth and the trend of land price increase based on the assumption that houses and agricultural land will be distributed to the North Koreans. The rationality of distributing the land is to reduce the income disparity between the South and North Korea and to secure North Koreans’ housing stability. This study has two main purposes. First, it analyzes the degree of contribution of the land allocation. Land endowed will give North Koreans another kind of income, land lease income which plays an important role to narrow the income gap.

Moreover, on the process of urbanization and industrialization, drastic increase of land price will lead to the increase of land rent which belongs to North Koreans. By analyzing the increase of those values, it verifies the degree of contribution of land rent income to resolve income disparity between South and North Korean. In this study, it assumes that unified government complimentarily allocates North Korea’s agricultural land and housing living at present to North Koreans. Second, it analyzes the optimal time of disposal of land that is complimentarily allocated to North Koreans.

Price of land in North Korea will increase sharply in the process of urbanization but as North Koreans have not enough capital stock, some of them want to dispose of the land. In this case, the beneficiaries of the complimentary land allocation will be the South Koreans who purchase the land. If unified government prohibits the transaction of the allotted land for a certain period of time, North Koreans will enjoy the benefit from the land price and rent increase. Therefore, this study analyzes the optimal point of time to permit the land trade. The analytic model is composed of the endogenous economy growth model based on government’s levying tax and the land asset value estimation model.

The total income is comprised of capital income, wage income, public capital trasfer and real estate income. To verify and compare the results according to the variation of parameters, I set the three alternatives with respect to the steady state growth rate in the endogenous economy growth model and another three alternatives with regard to the land price growth rates and compared the ratio of per capita total income between the two regions. When comparing the ratios, in case of including real estate income or not, it was approved that there was about 5% of effect on reducing income disparity.

This results came from the reason that high economy growth rate in North Korea led to increase of real estate price and real estate income though the initial ratio of real estate value and income from it was also low. The magnitude of the effect of reducing income disparity was higher as the steady state growth rate and land price growth rate are higher. The optimal timing of permitting land trade according to 9 cases in total was analyzed from 11 years to 17 years after reunification. This regulation will benefit from the increase of the land value during the period of time. There are two implications of this study.

It was the exemplary study combining land asset with the economic growth model to estimate the total income. Due to the difficulties of acquiring information with regard to the macro economy, land use pattern, land registration and land price, this study utilized the past trend data of South Korea. When we can get those kinds of data, this model will help to analyze the total income growth paths of both two regions and their ratios. Second, this study suggest the way to solve the degrowth problem in the early years of reunification. It was verified that lower steady state growth rate will lead to longer period of time of degrowth.

This is because the economy growth model assumed that the macro economy parameters are maintained in the long run. It permits outflow of the private capital stock from South Korea to North Korea until the rate of return and marginal productivity of capital stock of two region will be equal. Song(2013) also pointed out the movement of private capital stock at the beginning. From the results, attracting foreign fund will be required to reduce the amount of outflow of private capital stock from the South. The economy growth model was based on the closed economy which doesn’t consider the capital inflow and outflow between inside and outside of the regions.

Massive foreign funding will alleviate the economic threat and promote fast growth of North Korea and it can be done by issuing bonds and attracting direct foreign investment. Therefore further researches considering the certain rate of foreign fund for investment of public and private capital stock will be necessary to compare the results and effects. 본 연구에서는 통일 후 북한지역 토지 중 주택 및 부속토지와 농업용 토지를 북한주민들에게 배분한다는 가정 하에 남북한 지역의 경제성장 경로와 경제성장률을 고려한 토지가격 상승 추이에 따른 주민 1인당 총소득을 구성하여 남북한 주민들의 소득 수렴과정을 분석하였다. 토지자산 배분은 통일 이후 남북한 지역 경제 통합 시 극심한 경제격차 문제를 고려했을 때, 북한 주민들에게 일정 수준의 자산을 배분함으로써 주거 안정 및 소득 보전의 기회를 주기 위함이다. 본 연구는 크게 두 가지 목표를 가지고 있다.

먼저, 통일 과정에서 북한지역 주민들에게 토지재산의 일부를 배분함을 가정하여 토지를 통해 소득을 얻음으로써 남북한 지역 간 경제격차 해소에 어느 정도 기여할 수 있는지 분석한다. 북한 주민들에게 거주주택 및 일정 농지에 한하여 무상 배분을 수행할 경우, 해당 토지를 운영함으로써 추가적인 소득을 확보할 수 있다. 더 나아가 도시화 과정에서 토지가치 상승과 이에 따른 토지운영 소득 증가를 함께 얻을 수 있다. 이를 통일에 따른 남북한 지역의 경제성장 및 토지가치 상승 추이 분석을 수행함으로써 토지자산을 통한 소득이 총소득 격차해소에 기여하는 정도를 분석한다. 두 번째 목표는 북한주민들에게 배분된 토지에 대한 적정 매각시점에 대한 분석이다. 북한지역의 토지는 북한지역의 성장 및 도시화 과정에서 토지가치를 급격하게 상승할 것으로 보인다. 따라서 북한지역 주민들이 통일 초기 금융자산 확보를 위해 토지를 매각할 경우, 토지가치 상승에 따른 효과를 남한 주민들이 얻게 될 가능성이 높다. 따라서 일정 시점동안 배분된 토지의 매매활동을 금지함으로써 북한주민들이 토지가치 상승의 효과를 최대한으로 활용할 수 있도록 제도적 장치를 마련할 필요가 있을 것이다. 이를 위해 요구되는 점은 배분된 토지에 대한 매매를 어느 시점에서 허용할 것인지에 대한 것이다. 이를 분석하기 위해 두 번째 목표를 설정하였다.

남북한지역 주민 1인당 총소득은 정부의 조세 징수에 기반한 내생적 성장모형과 토지자산 가치 상승 모형을 종합하여 구성하였다. 모수의 변화에 따른 추이의 차이를 확인하기 위해 내생적 성장모형에서는 정상상태 경제성장률의 3가지 안, 토지자산 가치 상승 모형에서는 토지가격 상승률의 3가지 안을 구성하여 비교, 분석하였다. 분석