비축토지선정요인과 운영효과

토지비축 대상지 선정 요인과 운영 효과를 분석했다.

The purpose of this study is that factors to be considered when selecting land banking for the public development that is inferred to be acting as a positive factor for the effect of land banking such as the stability of land value and prevention of real estate speculation to achieve the goal of land banking such as the control of demand and supply of land and the stability of land markets and the effect of the operation of the extension of land supply by land bank projects that is the improvement of implementation system of land bank projects and the policy for the control of demand and supply of land are specified and verified through the analysis model and the successful realization of land banking system and the efficient use of national land is to be promoted by suggesting the direction of improvement.

As for the method of the study, first, which factors were to be considered and prioritized when selecting lands for banking for the public development was verified through a stratification system model. Second, what problems that were deduced from the result of recognition survey of experts the land banking system of the country has and what improving factors are for the implementation system of land banking projects were verified through a covariance structure analysis.

Third, econometric models were utilized to see how it affects the stability of land value in case that the extension of supply of urban lands on time is possible through land bank projects that are policies for the control of demand and supply of lands by the government through an analysis of a simulation. In other words, it was analyzed that whether the pre-security of urban lands through land bank projects with presumption that the extension of supply on time is possible when the demand occurs could be operated towards the direction to stabilize the price in the whole land markets. For the summary, the results of the study are as follows.

First, factors to be considered were preferentially developed to decide the priorities of lands for banking for the public development related to the specification of factors to be considered when selecting lands for banking for the public development. For the analysis, 6 kinds of big categories such as compatibility with policies, easiness of projects progress, urgency of projects, effects of banking, possibility of payback, and utilization of public interest purpose etc. were comprised by grouping similar factors.

As a result of analysis of stratification system model among comprised categories, the relative importance was found to be in the order of the effect of banking(0.212)>compatibility with policies(0.182)>possibility of payback(0.169)>urgency of projects(0.167)>utilization of public interest purpose(0.141)>easiness of projects progress(0.129), which could be analyzed that the effect of banking must be prioritized rather than sectors such as possibility of payback and urgency of projects etc. when selecting lands for banking for the public development.

Second, as a result of analyzing factors to be improved for the implementing system of land banking projects, it was found that the methods to raise funds systematic supplementation is needed for preparing for finances to stock up newly 10%(approximately 2 trillion won) of the demand of public development lands every year in terms of reserve general plan related to the part of securing finances. Besides, according to the goal of land banking policy, it was found that it must be operated with close interrelation with every kinds of plans of supply and demand of lands related to land banking system such as a super ordinate plan including national land general plan etc.

and the general plan of public land banking in order to contribute to smooth supply of public interest project sites and the stability of land markets. For the utilization of lands for banking as well, it was found that more active management and operation method such as the increase of utilization of lands through projects to increase values etc. was necessary and political supports such as costs and surveying manpower must be actively made so that the thorough and detailed survey for the supply and demand of lands could be made on the whole country.

In addition, it was found that a separate land bank management system that is interrelated with the existing land information system such as land banking information system etc. to diagnose evaluation and prediction on land markets exactly and to prepare for alternatives must be actively installed and operated at the national level. Especially, it turned out that the preparation for the objective standard is urgent for selecting lands for banking so that reasonable decision-making on stocking up preferentially which land for the public development could be done.

Thirdly, from the econometric analysis result of using macroeconometic variable, it was discovered that where the land reserved by land banking business continues to expansion of supply of urban land at suitable time, the economic growth increases 1%, rate of change in land price increases 0.916%p, and where liquidity of financial institutions increase 1%, rate of change in land price increases by 0.357%p.

Moreover, it was discovered that where the return of corporate bond represented by interest rate increases by 1%, rate of change in land price decreases by 1.687%p and where urban land increases by 1%, rate of change in land price decreases by 5.719%p, showing that compared to other explanatory variables, the effect of urban land on land price is comparatively large.

Furthermore, it was discovered that where acquisition price of public land increases by 1%, rate of change in land price decreases by 0.018%p, showing that the effect of acquisition price of public land on land price is unexpectedly insignificant, and it was discovered that where the amount of land transaction increased by 1%, rate of change in land price increased by 0.031%p. If the results