서울시 주택재개발 사업진행 영향요인 분석

서울시 주택재개발사업의 진행에 영향을 미치는 요인을 분석했다.

Housing redevelopment, which improves the urban environment by improving aging poor housing, has been recognized as a public service project, but in 2012, a new policy plan for maintenance projects was announced to curb the excessive maintenance project as the side effects of reckless maintenance projects became a social problem. The decrease in the supply of new housing through maintenance projects caused the housing supply rate in Seoul to decrease and the ratio of old housing to increase. As social consensus was formed on the need to revitalize maintenance projects, a bill to enact a special law to promote reconstruction and redevelopment was proposed in 2024.

In order to provide implications for the establishment of maintenance project policies, this study investigated the factors affecting the smooth progress of the project by dividing housing redevelopment into the project decision stage, union establishment stage, project plan stage, and construction stage. Through an empirical analysis of the factors influencing the removal of the designation of the maintenance area in the project decision stage, Chapter 3 investigated the factors affecting the start process of redevelopment projects by land owners after the designation of the maintenance area.

Since the removal of the maintenance area designation is determined by a referendum, the factors that can affect the pros and cons of local residents' maintenance projects without a maintenance plan are composed of independent variables. As a result of logistic regression analysis, which consists of categorical dependent variables on whether or not to cancel the designation of maintenance areas, the proportion of old housing in the area with low average apartment sales prices is high, the proportion of residents eligible for livelihood benefits is low, and the possibility of lifting the designation of maintenance areas for redevelopment where the union has not been established increases.

Chapter 4 analyzes the process by which the promotion committee secures the consent rate necessary for applying for approval for the establishment of the association through the factors influencing the project period at the stage of establishment of the association. A multilinear regression model was formed in which the time required from the date of approval for the establishment of the promotion committee to the date of the union founder was set as a dependent variable, and the factors that could influence the decision-making of land owners for maintenance projects were selected as independent variables without the size of the completion housing.

As a result of empirical analysis, regional characteristics and population characteristics do not show any significant influence, and if the number of members increases or the rate of change in interest rates increases when the establishment of the promotion committee is approved, the project period decreases, and if the economic growth rate increases when the establishment of the promotion committee is approved, or if the number of unsold houses in Seoul increases when the union is established, the project period increases. The new policy implementation of the maintenance project has the influence of increasing the project period at the stage of union establishment.

Chapter 5 is an analysis of the factors affecting the duration of the project in the maintenance planning stage, and used a multilinear regression model with the project period as a continuous dependent variable from the date of establishment of the association to the date of management and disposal to find out the process of establishing the project implementation plan and achieving the consent rate of members through the general meeting.

The total business profit, maintenance project cost, and individual contributions through the redevelopment project are determined in the maintenance plan stage, so a certain level of business profit should be secured and there should be no conflict between members over the project progress. As a result of the empirical analysis, if the number of members is high and the average apartment sale price in the autonomous district is high, the project period increases as the possibility of conflict among members increases, and if the interest rate fluctuation rate is high when the project implementation plan is approved, the project period decreases in anticipation of rising housing prices.

The price fluctuation rate is high when the project implementation plan is approved, the land price fluctuation rate is high when the management disposal plan is approved, and the revised law is applied through the new policy plan for maintenance projects. Chapter 6 analyzes the factors influencing the project period during the construction stage. Using a multilinear regression model with the project period as a dependent variable from the management and disposal plan date to the completion date, the redevelopment association analyzes the process of relocating, demolishing, and implementing new construction work by existing residents.

As a result of the empirical analysis, if the area of the area is large, the project period increases because the time required for relocation and construction work increases, and if the number of unsold houses increases when the management and disposal plan is approved, the project period increases because the construction period can be adjusted to secure maintenance project costs through general distribution.

Additionally, if the price fluctuation rate rises during approval of management disposition, construction costs increase, which can lead to conflicts between the union and the contractor, so the project period increases and public intervention in relocation and demolition works is strengthened through the new policy initiative of maintenance projects. As a result of this study's empirical analysis to find out the factors that affect the smooth implementation of the entire redevelopment project st