首都圈 宅地需給을 위한 向後 都市開發 方案에 관한 硏究

수도권 택지수급 전망을 바탕으로 향후 도시개발 방향을 제시했다.

By forecasting and analyzing the causes and the changes of the demand and supply of the land in the Seoul Metropolitan Region, this thesis assumes the mid-long term demands of the land and housing in the Metropolitan Area and sets up the city development direction through analyzing the scenario of the city development in the Metropolitan Area and the policy changes of the Metropolitan Area of the foreign countries, of which results are as follows. In spite of accelerating the gravitation of population toward the Metropolitan Area, the population of Seoul which have been at a standstill since 1992 is estimated that it will decline from 2011 owing to the rate of low birth and old age.

Otherwise, that of Gyeonggi Province will grow gradually and likely pass 13 million in 2020. However, the annual population growth of Gyeonggi in itself is also forecasted that it will decline continuously swimming with the stream of the times. The current housing supply ratio in Korea is 107% and has already risen above 100% in 2002. That of Gyeonggi Province as well has exceeded 100% in 2006 and that of Seoul also will be over 100% in next 5 years at least, which is also forecasted over 100%, exactly 101% in 2011 by 2021 Seoul City Master Plan.

On this condition, The housing supply ratio of Seoul will function as a key barometer for the housing demand of Gyeonggi Province like that of Japan. In case of Japan, the housing supply ratio of all local governments including Tokyo had reached 100% in 1973 and their large scale public land development projects by way of full buying method were under a difficulty because of the rise of land purchase cost and the big unsold housing in that year, which they coped with carrying the small-sized land development projects in the urban area together with the establishment of supply plan in the scope of wide area.

As a result, the approval area of city regeneration under the land readjustment project was similar to that of the new development in 1975. The big cities in Japan have had the re-gravitation phenomena of population toward the cities since 1997 affected by the city revitalization policy against suburbanization in 1973. That is to say, 25 years after suburbanization there were the gravitation phenomena of population toward the cities again. Such returning trend to the cities makes the old age rate of new cities near large cities soaring and forms old town because of the drain of the young adults. Now, even old people prefer Metro-cities and move into those.

Considering these the new cities in Metropolitan Area in Korea could have the same situation such as low population growth, old age and old town, and unsold housing problem owing to urban reconstruction. As a result of home and abroad case studies, it is forecasted that the demands of new cities in Metropolitan Area in Korea will be decreasing while the needs of reorganizing new space structure will be increasing. Accordingly, we need to set up new city development direction for proper mid-long term land supply plan by overcoming the current demand and supply policy of land and housing, such as new city development oriented policy. And as a solution we can propose as below.

First, we can forecast the development to the multi self-efficient city for making synergy by way of multi development. Actually speaking, the Pangyo and Gwanggyo New towns are not self-efficient cities but comfortable and garden cities. Because the trend turns the past highly densified and overcrowded housing type to less densified and eco-friendly city, finally moving into city restructuring pattern, namely multi-city with self-productive function. Strengthening the production function is necessary to the alternative self-efficient city as a form of industry self-efficient city.

In the new city around 35km outside urban area, self-efficiency is the most critical essence for the conditions of location. And in size we must have above 120 thousand housing, 200~300 thousand residents for each city so as to prevent disorderly development by small scale and contribute to the proper housing supply. Second, under the existing condition that the housing supply ratio has already been over 100%, we had better develop garden cities for leisure and tasting the pleasure of the rural life than supply the public housing like before.

Especially, under the old age society, the generation over young adults having economic efficiency and little responsibility of serving their family want to live in the eco-friendly environment spending time in playing games and taking some rest. However, there is no case of developing leisure-type garden city on a large scale in Korea, it is necessary for us to study hereafter continuously. Third, even though New-town project has already started as a regenerating old city project, it would cost 10~15 years till it could regularly work in Metropolitan Area. It must be a good substitute for previous land development, but still requires more project performing ability in Korea.

We need to prepare for a joint cooperation with foreign advanced companies with capital and know-how in order to overcome such handicap. Last, we should change into the highly value-added type land development on a medium and small size because there will be a limit of developing new city on a large scale in the Metropolitan Area. In addition, there will be difficulties of exhausting available land of new city, lots of civil appeals for land compensation and so long development period. As an alternative, we need to search available medium and small size lands in urban or suburban region, and maximize the added value of land development.

우리 정부는 지금까지 무주택 서민의 주거안정을 위해 주택의 양적 공급 확대를 위해 노력해 왔으며, 주택건설에 필요한 택지를 제공하기 위해 택지개발촉진법이라는 특별법을 제정하여 시행하고 있다. 이는 1960년대 이후 고도 경제 성장기를 거치면서 인구증가와 도시화에 따른 부족한 주택건설과 택지조성을 원활하게 하기 위한 것이다. 인구변화중 특히 수도권 집중화 현상이 두드러짐에 따라 소규모 택지개발로서는 한계가 있는 상황에서 획기적이고 체계적인 개발을 위해 1980년대말에 5개의 신도시를 동시에 건설하였고 현재에도 2기 신도시라 불리는 여러 개의 신도시를 건설하였거나 조성 중에 있다