분양가상한제가 재개발재건축사업에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구

분양가상한제가 재개발·재건축사업에 미치는 영향을 연구했다.

To say one word about the current housing market of the 21th century, it can be seen to have connection with globalization, diversity and informatization as it changes rapidly with social changes influencing the residential environment. At this situation, anyone can easily know through the learning effect experienced for the years how great the regulation or deregulation policies of government on the housing market have an influence on the housing market.

This study attempted to analyze changes in the recent 2-year trends of the housing market as the participant government enforced the housing sale-price ceiling system for private housing land abruptly in Sept 2007, with a focus on this point at issue. Especially, it attempted to investigate how the housing sale-price ceiling system has an effect on the housing redevelopment project and the rebuilding project and what problem it contains and ultimately to find out the scheme to improve the redevelopment project, rebuilding project and sale-price ceiing system. Especially, the sale-price ceiling system has been confronted with the argument for abolition since Dec, 2008.

So the realities are that project developers keep tabs on and weigh government's housing policy such as postponing the period of promoting the redevelopment and rebuilding project to after the abolition of the housing sale-price ceiling system in diverse terms such as profitability, conflicts with the association and the like. Under this situation of the housing market, this study attempted to make a brief description of concepts and basic theories, investigate the housing sale-price ceiling system with a focus on its effect on the redevelopment and rebuilding projects and discuss the analyzed results in an in-depth way.

A close look at the recent trends of the housing market under the housing sale-price ceiling system shows that as the volume of houses avoiding regulations on the housing sale price in the latter half of 2007, the point in time of enforcement of the housing sale-price ceiling system, the approval for the most sale of about 1,700,000 houses was recorded in a short period in history. It is interpreted that this is because projects occurred frequently at the same time by avoiding regulatory policy for fear that project profitability should be undermined when the sale price dropped due to the sale-price ceiling system.

On the one hand, it can be seen that the volume of houses in the metropolitan area including Seoul and Kyonggi Province and across the country sharply dropped since the enforcement of the housing sale-price ceiling system. This disproves that developers postponed the period of promoting the project later while applying the housing sale-price ceiling system. In this sense, the housing redevelopment project and the rebuilding project have overall shrunken at the situation that the housing sale-price ceiling system has currently been enforced for two years, and only a few projects are carefully developed.

Because only the housing complexes promoted by the association receiving approval before the enforcement of the sale-price ceiling system at the end of 2007 do not have the sale-price ceiling system applied, they can embark on their houses because of the presence of feasibility. In conclusion, regulations on the sale-price ceiling system for private housing come to undermine the profitability of the existing redevelopment project and rebuilding project as this study made clear, which may lower housing quality and lead to shrinkage throughout the housing supply market as the project-retarding factor.

As it is seen that the effectiveness of the housing sale-price ceiling system for private housing is more or less low at the governmental level, it is keenly necessary to switch the housing policy into the market-friendly housing policy. To attempt to revitalize the housing redevelopment project and the rebuilding project from this perspective, it is thought that it is desirable to proceed to abolish the housing sale-price ceiling system in a step-by-step fashion in a direction of minimizing the market shock while keeping an careful eye on the trends of the housing market.

But this study failed to make a comparison of diverse cases because there were only a few cases of project promotion by developers due to the enforcement of the housing sale-price ceiling system. So it has some limitation in that it failed to make comprehensive analysis or diverse study. Furthermore, it is necessary to make a study of efforts to foster the market conditions to correct the side effects and problems occurring in the housing redevelopment and rebuilding projects in relation to regulations on the housing sale-price ceiling system in the future.

Key words : sale-price ceiling system, housing redevelopment project, housing rebuilding project 현 21C의 주택시장을 한마디로 말하면 주거환경에 미치는 사회변화에 따라 급변하는 바, 글로벌 화 및 다양성과 정보화 등을 주요 이슈로 접목시켜 볼 수 있다. 이러한 상황에서 주택시장에 대한 정부의 규제 또는 완화 정책이 얼마나 영향력이 큰 지는 그동안의 학습효과에서 누구나 쉽게 알 수 있을 것인데, 본 연구는 이러한 논점에 포커스를 맞추어, 참여정부에서 2007년 9월에 민간택지 주택 분양가상한제를 전격적으로 실시함으로써 최근 2년간의 주택시장에 대한 동향 변화를 분석하고, 특히 주택재개발사업 및 재건축사업에 영향이 어떻게 미치고 어떠한 문제점을 안고 있는지에 대해 연구하고 궁극적으로는 재개발사업 및 재건축사업과 분양가상한제 제도의 개선 방안을 모색하였다. 특히 분양가상한제는 2008년 12월부터 폐지론이 대두되면서 사업 시행자들은 재개발재건축사업의 추진시기를 수익성 차원이나 조합간의 갈등 등의 다양한 측면에서 분양가상한제 폐지 이후로 사업을 연기시키는 등 정부의 주택정책을 눈치 보며 저울질하는 실정에 있는 것이 현실이다.

이러한 주택시장 상황 하에서 본 연구는 개념과 기본이론은 간략하게 하고 사업이 미치는 영향 쪽에 중점을 두고 연구하고 분석내용을 근거로 심도 있게 전개하였다. 최근에 분양가상한제하에서의 주택시장 동향을 보면, 분양가상한제 실시시점인 2007년 하반기에 분양가 규제에 대한 회피 물량이 집중되어 약 170만세대로 역사상 짧은 시기에 가장 많이 분양승인을 기록하고 있으며 이는 분양가상한제로 인한 분양가격 하락 시 사업수익성 악화를 우려하여 규제정책을 피하여 동시다발적으로 사업을 추진했기 때문으로 풀이된다. 한편 상한제 시행 후 서울 경기를 포함한 수도권 및 전국적인 승인물량은 급격히 하락한 것을 알 수 있는데, 이는 상한제를 적용하면서 시행자들은 사업추진시기를 뒤로 모두 미루고 있음을 반증하는 것으로 본다. 이렇게 볼 때, 현재 분양가상한제가 2년째 실시되고 있는 상황에서 주택재개발사업과 재건축사업은 전반적으로 위축되어 일부 극소수의 사업단지만이 조심스럽게 시행되고 있는데, 이것도 2007년말 상한제시행 이전에 사업승인을 받은 조합단지 들만이 상한제를 미적용 받고 있기 때문에 그나마 사업성이 있어서 분양에 들어갈 수 있다는 것에 불과하다는 것이다. 결론적으로 본 연구에서 밝힌 바와 같이 민간주택에 대한 분양가상한