인천송도지역의 리츠에 의한 특급호텔 개발

인천 송도 호텔리츠 개발사업의 정책·수요·재무 타당성을 분석했다.

The feasibility study on S Hotel development project of Hotel REITs located in Songdo (Island), Incheon consists of policy analysis, demand analysis, and financial analysis. First was related to a policy analysis, and this study carried out social environmental analysis and policy analysis. Regarding to the social environmental analysis, it analyzed effects of social and economic situations such as sluggish real estate transactions and its indices etc. on the real estate market, and did a role of raising fundamental matters of REITs investment in Songdo area, Incheon.

The policy analysis checked institutional improvement directions of REITs regulation by changes of national policy on emerged problems owing to social environments while backing up the social environmental analysis. Second is connected with the demand feasibility analysis, and the study comprehensively researched all changing factors that affected to the market and demands by doing analyzing local market trends, demand changes of tourists at home and abroad etc. for investing the case hotel. Location analysis and market one have been processed as main tasks, and the former consists of natural environmental analysis and accessibility analysis such as Songdo’s population and location etc.

in Incheon Free Economic Zone, and the latter is about potential competitors that will enter the tourist hotel market surrounding Seoul, Gyeonggi Province including Incheon afterwards together with present situations of same class hotels in Incheon area. The purpose of analyzing demands laid in providing evidences of financial profits through predicting demands, supplies, and proper demand forecasting of deluxe hotels in Songdo area, and the study utilized it as an important evidencing data for enabling investor’s decision-making on hotel investments through REITs. Thirdly, the financial analysis aims at looking into operating profits of Hotel REITS, No.

1 hotel of Songdo S Co., Ltd by predicting profits and expenses of the hotel, and investigated even the dividend policy finally. In relation with the policy feasibility analysis of Songdo S’s No. 1 hotel, it started from diagnosing favorable change possibilities such like trading in soft landing of the real estate market and lawful, institutional environments helped growth of the real- estate investment company owing to investment slumps. Indebting to recent attraction of Green Climate Fund (GCF), the associated effects from developments of convention exhibition industry will work as an important factor of hotel businesses.

The Songdo area where No.1 of Songdo S Co., Ltd makes investment is occupying the leading position among 6 economic free zones in our country. Active investments from home and abroad are being made visually, and population influx to Songdo district is being followed continuously. It is close to Incheon International Airport, and locational charms are unrivaled to other places as a back city of Seoul and metropolitan area too.

Though the market situation at the completing time of developmental projects is not easy owing to appearances of competitive hotels, sales profits of nearby sample hotels have been increased actually because room sales are enlarged owing to increases of tourists at home and abroad and clients of MICE companies, and thus operating revenues are rising continuously. The important criteria of the financial feasibility analysis are operating performances of nearby sample hotels. Hotel facilities and statistical errors occurred from differences of operating strategies will be added at the end. The investment amount of No.

1 of Songdo S is delivered from internal and external funds, and its ratio is 50:50. Sales of Songdo S Hotel is composed of room revenue and food & beverage one, and this study calculated room sales by adjusting 2014 opening and reflecting increase rates based on room occupancy and its unit price. Regarding to the operating expenses, the study reflected material cost, labor cost, and other expenses of nearby hotels, and applied the straight-line method of 40 year building as depreciation, and also carried out depreciation on interest cost that was an object of capitalization in financial expenses occurred from construction processes.

The estimated operating profit margins for 5 years of Songdo S Hotel are 20.8% in the 1st year, 21.0% in the 2nd year, 21.7% in the 3rd year, 22.3% in the 4th year, and 22.9% in the 5th year accordingly. Final net income of Songdo S No. 1 will be 14.69 billion won in the 1st business year, and 19.33 billion won in the 2nd year. The dividend yield to which 90% dividend are executed from the dividend limit adding the depreciation is 7.0% and 8.2% respectively, and it is displaying good results that exceed average yield of REITs 6 years in Korea consignment management. 이 연구는 인천송도지역에 새로이 특급호텔을 유치함에 있어서 그 타당성을 사례연구를 통해 분석하고 그에 대한 대응방안을 제시하는 것이다.

사례분석을 위하여 본 연구는 “(주)송도S 1호 위탁관리부동산투자회사”를 설립하여 자금조달을 하고 “송도 S호텔”이라는 특급호텔의 개발 타당성 분석을 실시하였다. 그 방법으로 정책분석, 수요분석, 재무분석의 순으로 사례호텔의 설립타당성을 진행하였다. 분석의 결과, 첫째 정책분석에 의하면 리츠법은 부동산 시장의 장기 침체에 의한 그 대안으로써 향후 법 제도적 측면이 우호적으로 개정되어 더욱 발전 할 수 있을 것으로 진단하였다. 둘재로 수요분석은 사례호텔 투자를 위한 지역시장의 동향, 국내외 관광객 수요 변화 등의 분석으로 시장이나 수요에 영향을 미치는 제반 변화 요인을 종합적으로 연구하였다. 수요분석의 주요 과제는 입지분석과 시장분석이다. 송도지역은 경제자유구역으로 지정되어 있고, 최근에 GCF(녹색기후기금)등의 국제기구를 유치하여 인천지방정부 뿐만 아니라 국가적 차원에서도 정책적 배려와 관심이 있다는 면에서 잠재적 호텔고객수요가 높을 것으로 분석되었다. 셋째, 재무분석 결과, “송도S 1호 부동산투자회사”는 “송도 S호텔”의 영업손익을 기반으로 제1사업년도 1,460백만원, 제2사업년도 1,933백만원(법인세차감전)순이익을 실현하는 것으로 분석되었다.

감가상각비를 고려하여 90% 배당을 실시한다면 배당수익률은 각 사업연도별로 7.0%, 8.2%로 현재 우리나라 위탁관리리츠의 6개년 평균수익률 7.23%와 거의 유사 혹은 상회한 결과로 나타났다. 결론적으로 “(주)송도S 1호 위탁관리부동산투자회사”의 양호한 영업실적은 리츠를 통한 송도지역의 특급호텔 개발가능성에 긍정적인 시그널을 준다고 할 수 있다. 다만 실증연구와 인적요인에 대한 연구는 본연구의 한계로 남음을 주지하는 바이다.