산림자원 및 산림의 공익기능량 추정을 위한 시스템다이내믹스 모형 개발

산림자원·공익기능 추정 모형으로 산지전용 억제 정책의 영향을 분석했다.

The purpose of this paper is to develop a System Dynamics model for estimating the volume of forest resources in the future and simulating the volume of function of public benefit linked to forest resources in dynamic manner. Also it is to analyze the impact when the volume of forest land conversion is controlled by policy using the SD model. The analysis was done at nation-wide for the simulation period 2000 to 2040. Estimated forest area was 6.2 million ha and estimated growing stock was 4.7 billion m3 in 2040 from the future forecast without policies.

Changing of forest resources, 13.9 billion tons of forest-ground-water storage was estimated, 1.8 million m3 of erosion control of forest was estimated and 377 million tons of CO2 absorption was estimated. As a result of simulation with two alternatives, forest area was less reduced and growing stock was bigger than do nothing policy. Also, function of public benefit reflected by changes of forest resources was enhanced. This study contributes to estimate the quantitatively measured volume of forest resources and function of public benefit over the 30 years in Korean forest land in scientific way.

Using this SD model, decision maker would develop forest land policies more delicately for deserving forest resources and increasing the volume of function of public.