대규모 재건축 아파트 단지의 가격변화 영향 요인 연구 : 정태 및 동태적 모형의 계층적 분석을 중심으로

대규모 재건축 아파트 단지의 가격변화 영향 요인을 분석했다.

Large-scale apartment complexes, intensively supplied during South Korea's modern urbanization process, are currently facing a critical point of physical and functional decline after 30 to 40 years since their completion. Accordingly, the housing policy paradigm is shifting from a focus on new supply to maintenance and regeneration aimed at restoring existing urban functions. While the asset value of general housing depreciates as physical aging progresses, apartments targeted for reconstruction exhibit a paradoxical and dynamic price formation structure; as aging deepens, the expected future value of converting to a newly built apartment increases, thereby driving up the price.

In particular, mega-scale reconstruction complexes with more than 2,300 units function as powerful pricing leaders and anchor prices within the local real estate market, exerting a profound ripple effect on value formation and the supply-demand structure of the neighboring housing market. However, the recent reconstruction market is exposed to complex macroeconomic and policy uncertainties, including prolonged high interest rates, surging construction costs due to global supply chain instability, the restitution of excess reconstruction profits, and issues concerning members' contribution fees.

Under such an environment where exogenous shocks and endogenous expectations intersect, identifying the price determination mechanism of reconstruction apartments from a single perspective has its limitations. Therefore, this study aims to identify the impact of micro-level complex characteristics and the macroeconomic environment on the prices of reconstruction apartments, targeting 23 mega-scale reconstruction complexes (over 2,300 units) located in major autonomous districts in Seoul (e.g., Gangnam 3-gu, Nowon/Dobong/Gangbuk, Mapo/Yongsan/Seongdong) and the 1st generation new towns in the Gyeonggi area.

Furthermore, it aims to econometrically identify the pure treatment effect of project progress. As a theoretical background, this study is grounded in the Hedonic Price Model, which views housing as a combination of various individual attributes, while integrating Real Options Theory and Information & Behavioral Economics to reflect the distinctiveness of reconstruction assets. A reconstruction apartment is defined as a complex asset combining the current residential use value and the call option value of converting into a future newly built asset.

In addition, the study adopts the theoretical framework that in a real estate market characterized by extreme information asymmetry, the progress of administrative requirements such as 'passing the safety diagnosis' acts as a strong signal to market participants, and behavioral economic mechanisms like loss aversion and anchoring effects induce downward price rigidity and dynamic price increases. For the empirical analysis, 37,550 individual transaction data collected over 60 quarters from Q1 2011 to Q4 2025 were utilized, and a Dual Approach was adopted to ensure the robustness of the analysis.

At the individual transaction level, a hedonic regression analysis applying two-way clustered robust standard errors was conducted. For the complex-quarter panel data, advanced stepwise identification strategies were employed, including Pooled OLS, Random and Fixed Effects models, System GMM, Two-Way Fixed Effects (TWFE) model, and Event Study. The main empirical analysis results of this study are as follows. First, the analysis of the micro-pricing structure strongly confirmed a positive (+) effect where prices rise as the elapsed years (age) increase.

This proves that in the reconstruction market, aging is not a simple indicator of depreciation, but is capitalized as a signal of future value that increases the probability of securing project rights. Additionally, accessibility to the Gangnam central business district and the land share per household acted as core locational and business profitability premiums that drive up prices.

Second, by controlling for both the unobservable time-invariant characteristics of individual complexes (location, school district, brand, etc.) and macroeconomic common shocks (interest rate changes, macroeconomic cycles, etc.) through the TWFE model, the completion of the administrative procedure of 'passing the safety diagnosis' was identified to purely increase the apartment price per square meter by approximately 10.2%. Third, the System GMM analysis confirmed that reconstruction apartment prices in Seoul and the metropolitan area possess strong path dependency, relying heavily on the price information of the previous quarter.

Moreover, the Event Study analysis showed no significant difference in price trends prior to passing the safety diagnosis, satisfying the parallel trends assumption; however, the market began to react immediately right after the passage (t=0), exhibiting a non-linear capitalization pattern where the effect gradually accumulated over the subsequent +2 quarters.

Fourth, the integrated analysis of macroeconomic and supply-demand variables, such as Bank of Korea interest rate fluctuations, GDP growth rate, and housing supply performance, confirmed that a significant portion of the reconstruction premium is strongly linked to and adjusted by the macroeconomic liquidity environment and the housing business cycle. This study provides the following academic and policy implications.

Academically, it is significant in that it overcomes the limitations of the existing hedonic model, which remained confined to static factors in explaining reconstruction apartment prices, and multi-dimensionally proves dynamic inertia, option value, and administrative signaling effects using panel econometric techniques. From a policy and practical perspective, it implies that reconstruction-related licensing and administrative procedures act as 'strong financial signals' that fluctuate massive capital values in the market, rather than simply being physical d