서울시 준공업지역 산업변화의 공간적 특성과 변화요인

서울 준공업지역의 산업 변화와 공간적 특성을 분석했다.

Like Petty's Law, which explains urban growth and changes in industrial structure, Seoul is growing into a global metropolis and itsindustrial structure is being reorganized from manufacturing-centered to knowledge-based industry. The industrial structure of quasi-industrial areas is also changing in accordance with this trend of industrial structure change. The quasi-industrial areas in Seoul was first designated in 1939 in Yeongdeungpo, with an area of 6.66㎢, and continued to increase until 1966, reaching a maximum of 87.56㎢. The total amount has been maintained since the 2010s (19.97㎢ as of 2023).

Through this process of change, the mixing of uses, the deterioration of the physical environment, and the resulting conflict with the promotion of maintenance projects are becoming issues. Previous studies on quasi-industrial areas have focused on changes in land use due to the decline of industrial functions, methods of maintenance (development) using factory sites, and more recently, building types due to commercialization of quasi-industrial areas, and factors affecting real estate prices.

Considering that the purpose of designation of a quasi-industrial areas is a mixed-use area such as residential and commercial areas centered on industry, there is no research from an industrial perspective. Therefore, this study aims to identify the spatial characteristics and factors affecting industrial change in quasi-industrial areas in Seoul and derive policy implications for the planned management of quasi-industrial areas. The study consists of theoretical and empirical studies, and the data for industrial change analysis were data from the National Business Survey provided by the National Statistical Office (3 time points-2008, 2014, 2021).

As an analysis method, ITA analysis was conducted to analyze industrial changes in detail in a time series manner. By distinguishing between indigenous manufacturing and knowledge-based industries (knowledge-based manufacturing and knowledge-based service industries), the spatial location characteristics of the space where each industry is concentrated were identified through Hotspot Analysis. In addition, multiple regression analysis was conducted targeting industrial clusters to analyze the influencing factors of industrial change. In this study, four hypotheses were established and verified through theoretical review and previous research.

The main results revealed through the study are summarized as follows. First, as for the industries in Seoul as a whole and in quasi-industrial areas, as claimed in Patty-Clark's Law and Hoffman's Law, the proportion of manufacturing is decreasing overall, and the industrial structure is becoming more sophisticated due to the increase in knowledge-based industries. Patterns of change appear spatially and diversely. The reason why industrial changes appear diversely by space can be attributed to the characteristics of the use area of the quasi-industrial areas, the characteristics of the industry in which it is located, and the environmental characteristics of the industrial location.

Second, when summarizing the results of ITA analysis and hotspot analysis by administrative district, industries in quasi-industrial areas of Seoul are subject to industrial changes, such as remaining as growing or declining industries, transitioning from growth to decline, or conversely, from decline to growth. It is happening in various forms by region and industry. Although indigenous manufacturing is in decline overall, indigenous manufacturing continues to grow in certain industries, regions and continues to contribute to Seoul's industrial growth.

Third, as a result of analyzing the factors affecting industrial change in the entire quasi-industrial areas, in terms of industrial diversity, the expansion of the diversity of the entire industry has the effect of reducing the change in the number of businesses in the entire or knowledge-based industry, and the existing indigenous manufacturing, Regions with diverse knowledge-based manufacturing industries (areas with excellent industrial diversity in the manufacturing industry) were analyzed to have a positive (+) effect on the change in the number of businesses, regardless of industry classification such as total businesses, indigenous manufacturing, and knowledge-based industries.

This means that among Jacobs' industrial diversity theory (all industries) and Marshall's industrial diversity theory (same type or related industries), the industrial diversity of indigenous manufacturing and its related knowledge-based manufacturing industry has a positive (+) impact on business change than the industrial diversity of the entire industry. This suggests that Marshall's industrial diversity theory is operating more strongly in Seoul's quasi-industrial areas, and that the manufacturing base is still having a positive impact on Seoul's urban growth(industrial growth).

In addition, it was found that the larger the total floor area of the already supplied knowledge industry center, the greater the number of startup businesses, and the greater the change in the number of employees, the more it has a positive impact on the change in the number of businesses in the overall business, indigenous manufacturing, and knowledge-based industries. Considering the characteristics of knowledge industry centers, it can be seen that knowledge industry centers are having a great influence on industrial change.

Fourth, when combining the analysis results by region, the variables that influenced the change in the number of indigenous manufacturing industry in the Seongsu-dong region were analyzed as the change in total floor area of the knowledge industry center(-), the number of startup businesses(+), and the change in the number of employees(+). The Variables that influenced the change in the number of knowledge-based industry entities were analyzed to include diversity of indigenous manufacturing (+) and change