업무시설 및 지식산업센터 공급이 고용증가율에 미치는 영향 : 서울시 공간구조계획을 중심으로

서울 공간구조계획에서 업무시설·지식산업센터 공급과 고용의 관계를 분석했다.

본 연구의 목적은 서울시 공간구조계획을 중심으로 업무시설 및 지식산업센터의 신규 공급량이 고용증가율에 미치는영향을 실증분석하는 것이다. 실증분석을 통해 확인하고자 하는연구 가설은 다음과 같다. 첫째, 서울은 공간구조의 다핵화에 의해 균형적으로 성장할 것이다. 둘째, 업무시설과 지식산업센터는고용증가율에 긍정적인 영향을 미치지만, 유사한 기능으로 인해상호 부정적인 관계를 보일 것이다. 셋째, 서울 중심지 위계에 따라 업무시설 및 지식산업센터 신규 공급량이 고용증가율에 미치는 영향은 차이가 있으며, 전략적으로 육성된 중심지에서 영향력이 더 클 것이다. 본 연구의 분석 결과는 서울시의 공간구조계획과 중심지 육성 및 관리를 위한 기초자료로 활용될 수 있을 것이다. Seoul’s spatial structure plan aimed at polycentricity by designating Sangam-Susaek, Magok, and Suseo-Munjeong as new centers in the 2011 and 2020 Seoul plans. In line with these development plans, large areas of land were allocated for office facilities.

Meanwhile, during the 2000s, the supply of numerous knowledge industry centers within national industrial complexes and semi-industrial zones contributed to the changes in the industrial structure in Gasan, Daerim, and Seongsu. According to previous studies, regions with higher levels of these two types of supply tend to exhibit significantly increased centrality. However, an increase in new supply does not necessarily lead to rapid employment growth. Employment growth is positively associated with the amount of new supply, but only an appropriate scale can be sustained in the long term, as evidenced by vacancy rates.

In other words, the marginal effect of new supply on employment growth rates may vary depending on the central place hierarchy, and the functional similarity between offices and knowledge industry centers may have mutually negative impacts. Therefore, this study empirically analyzes the impact of the supply of offices and knowledge industry centers on employment growth rates, focusing on Seoul’s spatial structure plan, to test three research questions. The results of the analysis are summarized as follows. First, from 2001 to 2019, employment in Seoul grew in a balanced manner, indicating that the spatial structure plan’s goal of polycentricity was partially achieved.

Second, in non-center areas, the new supply of office facilities and knowledge industry centers positively influenced the employment growth rate. However, a negative relationship between the two variables was observed. Lastly, after controlling for population, industrial structure, and subway accessibility, the new supply of offices in existing centers did not significantly affect employment growth, whereas it had a significant impact in Sangam-Susaek, Magok, and Suseo-Munjeong. The findings of this study can provide policy implications related to Seoul’s spatial structure plan and the fostering and management of central places.