OECD 20개국 재산세의 성장억제효과 분석

OECD 20개국의 재산세가 경제성장에 미치는 효과를 분석했다.

This study analyzes property tax effects on economic growth in 20 OECD countries. Using panel data regression technique I examined both primary and secondary tax effects from the property tax to GDP ratio on economic growth rate in these 20 OECD countries for the recent 29 sample years. The primary direct effect is shown to be significantly negative, -0.18 with the additional three nominal control variables composed of annual consumer price index based inflation, CPI unincluded annual housing price return, and annual tax burden ratio and the four real GDP component control variables of consumption, investment, government spending, and exports.

The secondary indirect effect was estimated from the reduced-form equation, the 2 stage panel data regression after substituting fitted values of property taxes from the primary estimation results of panel data regression by those above three control variables and this is shown to be significant -3.01 far greater in negative values than the direct effect. Meanwhile, in the primary first stage panel data regression results, impacts of both tax burden ratio and housing price return on property taxes are significantly positive, respectively whereas that of inflation on property taxes turns out to be significantly negative.

These results are confrontational with the previous studies arguing that negative effect from property tax to economic growth is quite slightly small or even counterfactual compared to that of income tax The reason can be deduced from the fact that property tax is treated as a policy variable affected by such market variables as housing price return and inflation and another policy variable, tax burden ratio in this study. Considering these results, the recent rapid hike of real estate taxes by Korean government is needed to readjust in line with the economic growth potential.