종합부동산세가 주택가격에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구

종합부동산세가 주택가격에 미치는 영향을 분석한다.

The government has implemented policies to stabilize real estate by gradually strengthening or relaxing tax rates. The property holding tax rate has a stabilizing effect by lowering the expected return, thus suppressing real estate demand. Additionally, when the tax burden level increases, it may be reflected in real estate prices, potentially passing the tax burden onto the prices in the real estate market. The decline in real estate prices due to the comprehensive real estate tax system by the present value of the expected future comprehensive real estate tax is called tax capitalization.

When the comprehensive real estate tax system is strengthened, it may cause tax capitalization on real estate assets, potentially leading to a temporary decrease in real estate prices. Based on this, the study empirically analyzed whether the strengthening of the comprehensive real estate tax system for multi-homeowners resulted in tax capitalization on real estate assets and an actual decrease in real estate prices. Additionally, since the comprehensive real estate tax on housing was sometimes eased with a change in government, the study also broadly analyzed whether this had a significant impact on real estate prices.

The regression analysis results of this study indicate that after the amendment date in 2018, which strengthened the comprehensive real estate tax for multi-homeowners, housing prices decreased. However, following the further strengthening of this tax in the 2020 amendment, there was no significant impact on housing prices. This suggests that only the 2018 amendment was perceived as a shock by the market, leading to a decrease in real estate prices due to tax capitalization, but the effect did not manifest after the 2020 amendment. On the other hand, in 2022, the comprehensive real estate tax on housing was eased, and the scope of those subject to higher tax rates was reduced.

Analyzing the impact on housing prices following the easing of the tax for multi-homeowners revealed no significant results. This could be interpreted as real estate holders lacking trust in government policies due to the inconsistency of real estate policies. Additionally, because real estate prices can react to regional characteristics and the impact of the comprehensive real estate tax reform on housing may vary by region, the analysis divided the country into the capital region, five metropolitan cities, and other regions. The results of this analysis were generally similar to those of the main analysis.

This study is significant in that it comprehensively analyzes whether changes in comprehensive real estate policies significantly affect real estate prices, considering the government’s alternating implementation of regulatory strengthening or easing policies according to real estate market conditions. The study’s contribution lies particularly in its nationwide analysis, followed by a regional breakdown into the capital region, five metropolitan cities, and other areas.