정비사업에 영향을 미치는 주택시장 및 도시 특성 분석

주택시장과 도시 특성이 정비사업에 미치는 영향을 분석했다.

Recently, President Moon Jae-in has announced the 9.13 housing market stabilization plan, following the 8.2 real estatepolicyin 2017, to restrain overheated interests and short-term speculative demands in Seoul and its surrounding metropolitan areas. Consequently, the recession in the submarket and local is accelerating, as the market is being influenced by governmental measures. Urban Renewal Projects, which have been active for the past years, are not off the hook, with signs of stagnation. These negative consequences seem to be amplified in local housing markets that are affected by population decline or the provinces disappearance.

The 「ACT ON THE MAINTENANCE AND IMPROVEMENT OF URBAN AREAS AND LIVING ENVIRONMENT」, since its enactment on December 30, 2002, has been the legal basis of the Urban Renewal Projects for about 15 years. However, under the stagnant market conditions for Urban Renewal Projects, the maintenance law was completely amended on February 9th, 2018. Moreover, a new bill, 「SPECIAL ACT ON THE MAINTENANCE AND IMPROVEMENT OF EMPTY HOUSE AND SMALL SCALE HOUSING」 was passed on February 8th, 2017, and enacted on the following year, to cover the maintenances of not only Block-unit housing, but also autonomous housing, small and empty housing, and small-scale reconstructions.

Under these changes, Urban Renewal Projects within the nation, covering a total of 3,071 districts, or 152,022,584㎡ are currently completed, in progress, or yet to be launched. Among these, approximately 80% of the projects are either completed or in progress. Considering that maintenance projects on average take up to more than nine years to completion, it is worthwhile to examine the factors that influenced the progress of the Urban Renewal Projects. The Urban Renewal Projects is likely to be shaped by the housing market and urban characteristics, since the projects fundamentally serve two purposes: supply of new housing and improvement of urban residential environment.

Therefore, the effect of housing markets and various urban specific variables on the Urban Renewal Projects nationwide was analyzed using Multiple Regression Analysis with SPSS VER. 22.0 and statistical data from "2017 Report on Urban Planning,” published jointly by Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport and Korea Land and Housing Corporation in June 2018.

The second chapter of the paper covers the theoretical background of Urban Renewal Projects, addressing the changes in and types of urban and residential environment maintenance systems, the revision of 「ACT ON THE MAINTENANCE AND IMPROVEMENT OF URBAN AREAS AND LIVING ENVIRONMENT」 and the contents of 「SPECIAL ACT ON THE MAINTENANCE AND IMPROVEMENT OF EMPTY HOUSE AND SMALL SCALE HOUSING」. Furthermore, the chapter explains the factors that differentiate this paper from prior literatures, and analyzes previous researches regarding Urban Renewal Projects, housing market, and urban characteristics.

In the third chapter, the status of Urban Renewal Projects is analyzed by stages, types, and implementation subjects. The chapter includes an investigation of the current state of small-scale Urban Renewal Projects through case studies of Block-unit housing maintenance projects. The factors that influenced that Urban Renewal Projects were categorized in large to two categories, housing market and urban characteristics, and a total of 28 factors were analyzed.

The result of this study showed that with respect to Urban Renewal Projects, trades in apartment ownership, apartment price per unit area, aged housing rate, fluctuation rate in land price, population density, dummy-variables of metropolitan correlated positively and housing lottery competition correlated negatively.

The results are based upon multicollinearity of ten independent variables, such as trades in apartment ownership, apartment price per unit area, aged housing rate, fluctuation rate in land price, population density, dummy-variables of metropolitan, housing lottery competition, apartment trade turnover rate, unowned housing rate, and average housing price flux (five years), each proven to have statistical significance. The implications of the policies are as follows: First, the policies that limits the resale rights of housing ownership negatively impacts the Urban Renewal Projects.

Therefore, Block-unit housing maintenance projects, which was excluded from the 8.2 housing regulation, could serve as an alternative. Not only does block-unit housing maintenance projects serve to provide new housing, but also improve the poor residential environment within the city center. Block-unit housing maintenance would be suitable for local low-rise, aged housing maintenance, and would be a niche market that revitalizes the local housing market and Urban Renewal Projects. Second, Urban Renewal Projects flourish in metropolitan areas where population is dense, apartment prices are high, and land price fluctuations are also high.

This suggests that metropolitan areas need to utilize regionally tailored maintenance projects to supply suitable housing. As such, block-unit housing maintenance and small-scale reconstruction projects could be a possible alternative. Locally tailored maintenance business would also contribute to urban renewal and revitalization of the city center. Third, it is necessary to endorse small scale maintenance projects rather than large scale projects in small and medium sized cities, where the number of aged houses are high and housing competitions are low.

To accommodate small to medium sized cities, autonomous housing maintenance and block-unit housing maintenance could be a suitable alternative. In particular, local governments are expected to provide more financial and business support in regards to autonomous housing Urban Renewal Projects, since these projects are voluntary housing and residential environment projects for low-rise, aged housing areas. Regardless of government measures to prevent speculative