생존분석을 활용한 주택 계약완료기간(Time to Close) 영향요인 분석 = Determinants of Time to Close in Housing Transactions: Evidence from Survival Analysis

주택 거래의 계약완료기간에 영향을 미치는 요인을 분석한다.

This study examines the factors influencing the time to close in residential property transactions. While time on market and time to close both affect housing transaction outcomes, they reflect different economic mechanisms. In particular, time to close may involve a range of economic costs borne by sellers, including opportunity costs arising from housing price appreciation, overlapping mortgage payments, and temporary housing expenses. Particularly, this study conceptualizes time to close not as a simple administrative interval, but as an independent contractual component with important economic implications.

Using nationwide transaction data on apartments, townhouses, and multi-family housing units in Korea since 2023, this study employs Cox proportional hazards models and accelerated failure time (AFT) models to analyze the determinants of the contract completion period. The findings reveal that, beyond macro-market conditions such as interest rates and housing price growth, transaction-specific characteristics-including housing price levels, relative price discounts or premiums, and whether transactions were broker-mediated or direct-significantly influence the duration of contract completion.

In addition, institutional factors, including the property tax assessment date and debt service ratio (DSR) regulations, are also found to affect the time to close. These results suggest that the contract completion period should be understood not merely as an administrative process, but as an economically meaningful duration shaped by the interaction of market, institutional, and contractual conditions.