연구 요약
연구 요지 (AI)
사회기반시설과 용도지역 변경이 아파트 가격에 미치는 효과를 분석했다.
초록
The Estimation of the Externality Effect on the Apartment Price and The Value Capture of Contingent Benefit Focusing on Social Overhead Capital and Upzoning in Seocho, Seoul The real estate and an apartment is the representative asset of an ordinary household in Korea and representative examples of positive externalities on apartment prices, in other words, generation of contingent benefit, are the construction of social overhead capital and up-zoning.
As the opening of the Seoripul Tunnel and the up-zoning of the Naebang Station intersection in Bangbae-dong, Seocho-gu, one of the 25 autonomous districts in Seoul, occurred sequentially in similar areas and periods, this study aims to verify the external effect of apartment prices with the case in which it affects real estate prices limited to the area. As a prerequisite to suggest the practical proposal of a contingent benefit value capture plan as a result of the study, the spatiotemporal limits of external effects must be strictly measured.
Accordingly, DID (Difference in Difference Regression) and RD (Regression Discontinuity) were analyzed crosswise according to time and distance, and the external effects were found in both analyses. First, the price changes of apartments in Bangbae-dong were analyzed by time and distance, with the time point set as before and after the plan announcement, commencement, and completion of Seoripul Tunnel, and the distance divided into 500m and 1km nearby areas. Then, the external effects were examined through statistical analysis by evaluating changes in apartment prices around the negotiation stage and final announcement of the up-zoning of the Naebang Station intersection.
The purpose of this study is to present policy suggestions verifying the external effects of unexpected contingent benefits and value capture, rather than simply capturing the value of benefits resulting from previous development profits. For the economic externalities, most significantly related to the purpose of the study, two related cases were presented, negative externalities and positive externalities, and reviewed a number of related previous studies. In addition, in relation to the resulting changes in real estate prices, the concept of Coase's theorem and the existing development profit value capture system applied to existing development entities were also analyzed.
In statistical analysis of the effect of Seoripul Tunnel on apartment prices in Bangbae-dong through DID (Difference in Difference Regression), a statistically significant positive effect was found in the 6 and 9 month, in the area within 500m before and after the commencement of tunnel construction. On the other hand, in comparisons of areas within 1km, no statistically significant results were found regardless of the period, which shows that the external effects resulting from the commencement of tunnel construction occurred only at a certain time point and period in the area adjacent to the tunnel.
Referring to previous research that expectations following the completion of a tunnel could be reflected in advance, an additional analysis using 3 months before tunnel completion as the reference point showed that in the analysis within 500m and within 1km, a statistically significant positive (+) value was found at 9 months before and after the completion of tunnel construction.
Subsequently, in the results, applying RD (Regression Discontinuity) to analyze the external effects caused by changes in apartment prices in Bangbae-dong before and after the negotiation and implementation of up- zoning at the intersection of Naebang Station, the estimation value of the local average treatment effect had a positive value, while there were differences in its size and statistical significance depending on the input of control variables. Comprehensively, it was analyzed that the announcement of the up-zoning plan at the Naebang Station intersection had a statistically positive effect on apartment transaction prices in nearby Bangbae-dong.
In cross-analysis on tunnel opening and up-zoning through DID (Difference in Difference Regression) and RD (Regression Discontinuity), detailed differences were statistically found with the same data and temporal and spatial distance conditions and external effects were commonly found, while the temporal and spatial significance ranges of the two analyzes showed different depending on the analysis method. It was also shown that external effects had the greatest impact within the temporal scope at the time of the announcement of the construction commencement and within spatial range for 500m and for up-zoning, at the time of negotiation announcement.
In conclusion, it is suggested that factors such as tunnel construction and up-zoning in a specific area may affect the increase in nearby real estate prices due to their external effects, implying, in terms of government policy, that government policy intervention is required to respond to external effects, rather than relying entirely on market functions.
This study has its significance in that it seeks to propose an appropriate value capture methodology by setting the scope of time and space for the external effects, proving the scope of separate contingent benefits due to tunnel opening and up-zoning through statistical analysis, rather than general development profit value capture from development.
It provides grounds for the necessity of an in-depth preparation of measures to value capture the contingent benefits pointed out in this study in various ways from the planning stage to after development completion in the promotion of social overhead capital construction projects or up -zoning by the central government or local governments In particular, in areas such as Seocho-gu where apartment prices and growth rates are higher than other autonomous districts, various value capture methods can actually be applied. For the method, cases from various previous research at home and abroad were
발행 정보
2024. 건국대학교 대학원 국내박사 학위논문