상가 임대차계약의 옵션가치 추정에 관한 연구

상가 임대차계약의 옵션가치를 추정하고 부동산 투자 측면을 분석했다.

Ⅰ. Introduction These days, investors are increasingly interested in profitable real estate in the Korean real estate market. Retail real estate is such an item, and investors or developers who value the nature of cash flow are becoming more interested in turning rental business and retail real estate into financial products. The change in the nature of real estate investment implies that real estate is indeed an investment item like other financial products, so investors or developers need to check the risk of investing in real estate market.

That is, one needs an index in order to come up with an objective investment decision, and the amount of rent will become ever more important as an index for measuring the profitability of commercial real estate when leasing becomes more prevalent in Korean real estate market in the future. Rent in retail real estate is decided locally and individually based on the retail environment of the commercial trade area where the target customers exist, so the economic power of commercial trade area greatly affects in the amount of rent.

The change in the economic power of commercial trade area results in the increase or decrease in retail rental, prompts new commercial trade areas or marts to compete against the existing commercial establishment, and brings changes in the consumers’ standing. Changes in public transportation, introduction of large wholesale or retail stores, introduction or transfer of public agencies or big businesses, and increase in income and accompanying change in consumption pattern are some of the factors which may bring changes to market power.

The start of city restructuring and diversification of consumer taste have resulted in the intense and complex usage of land in Seoul, thereby increasing the economic power of commercial trade area. Despite the importance of the economic power of commercial trade area, researches on concrete factors which affect the economic power of commercial trade area have been neglected thus far. Depending on the individual background of retail rental, predicting the operation and resale profits and coming up with a strategy have become an important issue.

Thus, this study will discuss variables that affect the rental price of individual store and their importance by utilizing data on retail real estate in Seoul. In addition, this study will predict the option price based on an option price model and rental price index. Lease options is the combination of rental contract, financial tool and checks every revision interval whether situation have changed favorable to decision maker or not.

This paper main goal of this study to develop the Lease Option Model of Retail Real Estate by the data mining method controlling the market characteristics which are influential on the level of rent and to establish the retail building rent forecast model which is connected with the macro economic variables. Ⅱ. Trend of research Because it is hard to obtain rental data in retail real estate, and retail real estate requires more complex professional knowledge than residential real estate, there have not been many studies how retail real estate goes about setting its rental price.

Studies that deal with factors which affect commercial rental price were geared towards how spatial factors of retail real estate affected rental price until 1980s, but they have progressed to investigating how non spatial factors, such as the nature of consumers or image of shopping centers, affect the rental price since 1990s. According to studies on rental price or retail real estate, stores located in a huge shopping mall is more competitive than stores located in a small shopping center (Eton & Lipsepy; 1982, Mulligan;1983); and Ghosh (1986) reports that landowners or low level retailers benefit from the availability of multi purpose shopping.

Moreover, the lease term, percentage rent, or name value of franchise affect the rental value of each store (Benjamin, Boyle & Sirmans; 1990); and the size or age of shopping center or nature of core leasees may decide the rental price as well. (Sirmans & Guidry; 1993) Also, stores which are traditionally known to draw a sizable volume of traffic often end up paying less for rent.

(The Center for Advanced Land Use Studies; 1975 & Anderson; 1985) Many studies used the rental price of retail real estate and nature of the market or economic power of the primary commercial trade area as an explanatory variable, but studies which deal with variables on the economic power of commercial trade area are extremely limited. The buying power of commercial trade area is known to be important in determining the amount of retail sales and setting rental price (Ingene and Lusch; 1980, Okoruwa et al.; 1994); and the image of core leasees or characteristics of the population are some of the variables that reflect the economic power of the commercial trade area.

(William and Marvin L; 2001) Ⅲ. The research model and data 1. Theoretical model and variables (1) Theoretical model In this study, a commercial trade area means a spatial and local area, and includes all the concepts which oversee the most practical place of trading for consumers as well as businesses. In general, the commercial trade area is determined by the nature of stores, physical obstacles, competitions within the location, driving distance, and other elements. According to the Central Place Theory, high level goods and service industry influences low level goods and service industry.

That is, a high level goods and service industry often affects the rented price of retail real estate for an area close to the industry. In addition, the special image of retail real estate or core leasees, or the economic power of commercial trade area may increase the amount of sales in retail real estate, and the increase will be reflected in rental price of retail real estate. The model also explains the recent accumulation of retail stores at the center of a shopping d