都市計劃을 위한 人口推定模型 定立에 관한 考察 : 光州廣域市를 중심으로

광주광역시 도시계획을 위한 인구추정모형을 정립했다.

This study has been carried out for the purpose of giving basic data and suggestive issues to making policies for city development by setting up an multiple regression equation for estimating city population which necessarily precede city development or shaping policies. Furthermore, it is going to suggest a practical model of estimating population which is helpful to pre-estimate the patterns of growth of cities.

The result is like the following ; First, an equation for population estimation model made based on the result of multiple regression analysis and population as a subordinate variable is the following; Y = a + bX_(1) +cX6 +dX_(12) +eX_(8) Y = 2.64660-1.06609X_(1)-0.30547X_(6)+0.15128X_(12)+1.24854X_(8) Y = 2.6466-1.0661*works-0.3055*culta+0.1513*publi+1.2485*commu X_(1) = workers in industry/economy/enterprise (works) X_(6) = cultural/sports facilities (culta) X_(12) = government and public offices (publi) X_(8) = Communication facilities/number of telephone fixture (commu) Second, suitability degree of multiple regression equation is 0.94649 and 94.65% out of used cases showed appropriate to the regression curve.

The setting-up of the regression equation itself by use of F value also showed significant meaning in statistics. Third, it became clear that variables of communication facilities and works in enterprise are deeply related to subordinate variable in the level of 90% by T-test. The most effective variable to the growth of population was communication/telephone fixture(3.681) and works(12.431), public offices(l.986), and culture(-1.714) were in order.